Rockies vs Brewers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 9
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Rockies vs. Brewers Odds
Milwaukee is right in the thick of things in the NL Central, which happens to be the tightest division in baseball. The Brewers lead the division, but the Cubs and Reds are right behind them.
Colorado, at this point, is simply playing spoiler down the stretch.
After Milwaukee took the opener in dominating fashion, Colorado exploded for four runs in the 10th to win on Tuesday night.
The rubber match is set for Wednesday afternoon and I think there's value on the underdog.
Chris Flexen’s career has been a story of perseverance. He spent five years in the minors before making his MLB debut in 2017. Over the next three years, he struggled to an 8.07 ERA with the Mets and spent more time in the minors than the majors. Flexen was designated for assignment and then pitcher in the KBO. He pitched well in the KBO during the 2020 COVID season and earned a spot back in the Major Leagues with Seattle.
Flexen had a breakout season in 2021 with the Mariners, going 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA. He recorded the most starts of at least seven innings pitched while allowing one run or fewer of any pitcher in the American League and the Mariners went 22-9 in his starts.
However, last season was a bit of a step back. He posted a 3.73 ERA, but eventually got shifted to the bullpen after Luis Castillo was acquired at the trade deadline. This season, he posted a 7.71 ERA in 17 games before the Mariners DFA'd him.
Colorado signed Flexen to a minor league deal before selecting his contract on July 29. He is coming off his best outing with the Rockies as he gave up three runs over five innings against the Cardinals and earned his first win with Colorado.
With a fastball averaging just over 91 mph, Flexen’s best pitch is his 80-mph changeup. He pitches to contact and is at his best when generating ground balls. His home run-to-flyball ratio has been a concern, as he is allowing a career-worst HR/9 rate this year.
Even with the boost of playing half their games at Coors Field, the Rockies still rank 30th in wRC+ and 22nd in wOBA. They rank 25th in home runs and Nolan Jones and Ryan McMahon are the only two Rockies with a wRC+ over 100.
Adrian Houser is having a rough season in the Brewers rotation. Houser is a below average, but serviceable starter with a 4.19 ERA and a 4.53 xERA in 15 appearances.
Houser also pitches to contact and ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in strikeout percentage. Opponents have racked up a .335 wOBA against Houser this season, the second-highest mark of his career.
Houser utilizes a sinker, which has helped him keep the ball in the yard and limit the homers. However, teams have a .310 batting average against his most frequently used pitch. His ground-ball rate is one of the best in the league (48%), but that’s down from the 60% mark he posted just two years ago.
Milwaukee is finally getting Christian Yelich to look like his former self. He has a .367 wOBA and a 131 wRC+. He also ranks ninth in the league in hits and eighth in runs scored. However, the Brewers are a bit thin behind him.
Rockies vs. Brewers Betting Pick
This bet is nothing more than a numbers play. Houser shouldn't be a -230 favorite against anybody. He has a 4.53 xERA and ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in K%, Hard-Hit% and xBA. He also ranks in just the 31st percentile in xERA and xwOBA.
For as bad as the Rockies have been on offense, the Brewers aren’t exactly world-beaters. Milwaukee ranks 26th with an 89 wRC+ and is below Colorado with a .309 wOBA. The Rockies will also be in their better split as they are much better against right-handed pitchers.
Flexen is at his best when he is generating ground balls with his changeup, and Milwaukee has the fifth-highest ground-ball rate in baseball.
The Brewers will win this game more often than not, but -230 is too big of a number. I’ll take my chances with the Rockies.
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