Rockies vs Diamondbacks Pick, Prediction Today
Getty Images. Pictured: Kris Bryant and Zac Gallen
- The Colorado Rockies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks for Opening Day at 10:10 p.m. ET.
- Our expert is eyeing a two-leg parlay for tonight's showdown.
- Let's dive into his Rockies vs. Diamondbacks picks and prediction for Thursday.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -111 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +184 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
Here's everything you need to know about Rockies vs Diamondbacks on Thursday, March 28 — including odds and a prediction.
The Diamondbacks followed up their surprising 2023 World Series appearance with a strong offseason, and fans, as a result, are rightfully pumped for this season. Chase Field should provide a great Opening Day atmosphere, particularly because 2023 NL Cy Young nominee Zac Gallen will take the mound.
It's will be a much more trying year for the Rockies, who own the NL's lowest betting total at 59.5 wins. A low quality starting staff is one of the main reasons why, and Kyle Freeland landing as the Opening Day starter is a testament to their lack of upside. The 31-year-old lefty pitched to a 5.03 ERA with an xFIP of 5.13 last season.
Freeland is coming off a dominant Spring Training in which he pitched to a 2.37 ERA across 19 innings, with a K/9 of 7.6. However, he hasn't offered any significant changes compared to last season, when he put up a 5.70 xERA and 5.13 xFIP. He pitched to a Stuff+ of 70, with a Location+ rating of 103.
While Freeland has never been a flame-thrower, his average fastball velocity (88.7 mph) was a concern, and that mark was the fifth-lowest among pitchers to throw over 65 innings in 2023. He has allowed an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph on non-fastballs since 2021, which is the 12th-highest mark among starters to throw over 190 innings.
Once park factors are taken into account, FanGraphs projects the Rockies to have the worst offense in the league.
The Rockies 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching last season ranked last in MLB, and it doesn't appear the lineup is due for much in the way of an uptick.
Colorado will look for continued steps forward at the plate from youngsters such as Nolan Jones, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar. Tovar is already a monster defensively, but improving upon his 70 wRC+ from a year ago will be critical if the Rockies are going to improve offensively.
Kris Bryant could contribute more if he can stay healthy as his projected wRC+ (103 per Fangraphs) ranks second on the team.
It's been a strong offseason for Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen. He was able to lock up Jordan Montgomery for $25 million on a one-year deal and also signed Eduardo Rodriguez. The two should help shore up a starting pitching staff that is starting to look really strong, particularly as many believe Brandon Pfaadt is going to take steps forward.
The additions of Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson will help provide some added power to the lineup, which was a concern last year when the Diamondbacks slugged only .408. With Tommy Pham being the only notable departures from the lineup — and being effectively replaced — the Diamondbacks could take steps forward on offense.
Young stars such as Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno should continue to develop at the plate as they're well insulated by established talents.
The Diamondbacks will also begin the season without closer Paul Sewald, who is set to miss several weeks with a strained oblique. Still, the bullpen projects to be solid and is ranked 15th by FanGraphs in WAR projections.
Zac Gallen is priced as the fifth favorite (+1200) to win the NL Cy Young Award. ZiPS projects him to pitch to a 3.57 ERA and accumulate 2.8 WAR. He owned a Stuff+ of 118 a year ago, with a Location+ of 104.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Freeland's stellar Spring training aside, the Diamondbacks still hold a considerable starting pitching edge in this matchup. More notably, the Rockies are projected to have the worst offense in baseball and the Diamondbacks should be right around the top third. Arizona also boasts a high quality bullpen, which offers another edge over the Rockies.
Arizona is a pretty large favorite, but I still believe this early season number is too short.
You can bet the Diamondbacks to win the first five innings and the full game at -126 on FanDuel, and I believe that is worthy of a bet down to -130.
Pick: Arizona F5/Game Moneyline Parlay -126 (FanDuel) | Play to -130
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