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MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction for Rockies vs. Pirates: Pittsburgh Has the Edge in Wednesday Matinee (May 25)

MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction for Rockies vs. Pirates: Pittsburgh Has the Edge in Wednesday Matinee (May 25) article feature image
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Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Thompson (Pirates)

  • The Rockies and Pirates go head-to-head in Pittsburgh on Wednesday in their series finale.
  • Prospect Ryan Feltner takes the mound for the Rockies, while Zach Thompson gets the ball for the Pirates.
  • D.J. James dives into the matchup and offers up his best bet.

Rockies vs. Pirates Odds

Rockies Odds +105
Pirates Odds -125
Over/Under 8
Time 12:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

To round off the third matchup of a three-game set, Zach Thompson will pitch for the Pittsburgh Pirates against prospect Ryan Feltner and the Colorado Rockies.

Thompson is a veteran righty who induces some weak contact. He’s in the middle of the pack with a xERA of 4.39, but his 4.88 ERA proves he’s been a tad unlucky.

Feltner has only made a few appearances at this level, one of which was this season. In that outing, he gave up four earned in five innings against the Phillies. However, he did show some promise, striking out seven in that game.

In the month of May, neither of these teams has particularly dazzled off of right-handed pitching, but the Pirates have been slightly better.

With a newer face on the hill versus a veteran starter, they maintain the edge.

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Numbers Don’t Favor Rockies’ Feltner

Feltner is predominantly a fastball pitcher. In his start this season, he threw his four-seamer around 49% of the time, while mixing in a slider, curveball and changeup as off-speed alternatives.

This Pirates team has eight batters with a .340+ xwOBA clip off of right-handed fastballs this season. In addition, in each MLB appearance, Feltner has allowed at least two walks. Against righties this season, the Pirates have a 9.2% walk percentage, ranking ninth in MLB.

All of these variables should give Feltner enough trouble on behalf of Pirates bettors.

The Rockies’ bullpen is a little strapped for production. They only have four pitchers with a sub-4.00 xFIP this month: Tyler Kinley, Ty Blach, Carlos Estevez and Daniel Bard. Their collective 4.25 xFIP is not encouraging if Feltner leaves the game early, either.


Can Thompson Get the Job Done?

On the other side of the diamond, the Pirates have struggled just as much this month. They do have David Bednar, though, who has been exceptionally reliable as a closer.

Thompson has gone at least five innings in each of his last three starts, so this should play into the Pirates’ hands, as well.

Other than Bednar, Duane Underwood Jr. and Bryse Wilson have also been helpful this month.

The key to this game will be Thompson’s performance. He ranks in the 82nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity at 86.8 MPH and the 71st percentile in Hard Hit Percentage at 35%. He utilizes a mix of a cutter, sinker, four-seamer, changeup and curveball, so he will keep the Colorado hitters guessing.

In May, only four hitters have held a .340+ xwOBA off of righties, and Brian Serven is one of them. He’s the backup catcher to Elias Diaz. Depending on which catcher gets playing time in this one, the lineup against Thompson could be weakened with Diaz, based on his splits in May.

Digressing from that point, that’s not nearly enough ammunition to get the job done against a pitcher like Thompson.

One of Thompson’s weak points is he’ll walk the occasional batter, but since Feltner will likely do the same and Colorado is walking 1.2% less than Pittsburgh when facing righties this season, the Rockies won’t hold an advantage.

Building off of that, the Rockies only have a 79 wRC+ mark in May. This is 11 points lower than the Pirates, thus expanding upon the point that they are at a disadvantage.

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Rockies-Pirates Pick

Thompson is not a very strong pitcher, but compared to Feltner, he wins the edge. The Pirates also have the better closer, so, as long as Thompson can go five or six strong, he’ll limit the damage.

The Rockies have had a slightly less valuable relief corps in May, so the Pirates get the edge.

Pittsburgh also has several hitters who can crush right-handed fastballs. Unless Feltner suddenly uses other pitches in his arsenal, he’ll give up runs.

Take the Pirates.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -130 (play to -145)

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