Royals vs Orioles Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions
Royals vs. Orioles Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+128 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -162 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-152 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +134 |
The Baltimore Orioles could not complete the sweep on Sunday afternoon after getting shut down for the majority of the game by Angels southpaw Reid Detmers. The O's have a quick turnaround at home as the Kansas City Royals come to town.
The Royals offense exploded on Sunday afternoon, and they were able to avoid the sweep against the Minnesota Twins. They'll send out veteran right-hander Michael Wacha to stifle the Baltimore bats.
With rain in the forecast for most of the afternoon, it should clear up a few hours before the first pitch. Let's go ahead and break down the latest Royals vs. Orioles odds and make a pick and prediction from a betting perspective.
The Royals were one of the teams I circled as a sleeper team entering the 2024 season. They are loaded with young talent and they are a couple of pieces away from being a serious threat in the American League.
Bobby Witt Jr. officially started his AL MVP campaign on Sunday afternoon after a strong showing at the plate going 3-5 with three runs scored and a home run. The Royals need a lot more from Witt moving forward if they are going to be a competitive baseball team all season.
Unfortunately, I have my concerns about the pitching matchup on Monday evening. Wacha has made his rounds in the big leagues for a long time and has put up respectable numbers in the past few seasons.
I have legitimate concerns about the particular matchup since he has not faired well against the current Orioles hitters. For instance, the O's are hitting .321 against Wacha over 112 at-bats.
Wacha sported a 3.22 ERA last season, but his 4.47 xFIP suggests he was very fortunate. He allowed one home run for every fly ball last season, with a modest 39% ground ball rate.
After the O's were stifled on Sunday afternoon by the Halos, it is naive to think their talented offense will be shut down once again. That puts a lot more pressure on the Royals bats to show up against Kremer.
It is not the worst matchup for the Royals against Kremer, as he is another candidate for regression entering the season. The Royals have limited experience against Kremer, as the only player with two hits in the 12 combined at-bats against him comes from Witt Jr.
I am not a Kremer fan, but the O's bats are too much to overcome for me to back the Royals in this spot.
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I like the matchup for the O's bats heading into Monday night. Their offense was subject to a tough matchup on Sunday, and now they draw a juicy matchup against Wacha.
What is important to note is the core of the O's lineup have the most experience against Wacha in their careers:
Cedric Mullins 8-18 4 XBH's 5 RBIs
Ryan Mountcastle 7-17 3 XBH's 3 RBIS
Anthony Santander 6-17 3 XBH's 2 RBIS
That is not including OF Austin Hays who is 5-14 against Wacha in his career. It is tough not to like the offense's chances to bounce back.
What is stopping me from backing the O's is Dean Kremer. Yes, Kremer had a mediocre 2023 season, but if you take a look at the metrics he was extremely fortunate.
Kremer is a fly ball pitcher and gave up a ton of hard contact last season (41% hard contact rate). The Royals are an up-and-coming offense that has the potential to put up real damage against him.
I am far more confident in the O's offense on Monday than trusting Kremer to hold the Royals bats at bay.
Royals vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
It is tough to gauge the Royals offense after an impressive showing on Sunday, so there is a case to be made that their bats will cool down a bit here. But, Kremer's inconsistencies are scaring me away from targeting the full-game total.
Instead, I like the Orioles team total over. The ample experience against Wacha is a huge plus, especially since most of their key bats all have great numbers against him.
The O's offense is far too talented, and it is a great buy-low spot on their offense after a tough day at the plate on Sunday. Baseball is full of variance, but the matchup is too juicy to combat that and I am all-in on their offense on Monday evening.
Pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+104)
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