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Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today's slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, September 25.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Blue Jays Moneyline (-154)
- Rangers Moneyline (-115)
- Mariners Moneyline(-120)
Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick
Nick Lodolo and the Reds head to Toronto for his final start of the season. Lodolo's season has been tumultuous, with injuries and underperformance, but he's been pitching deep into games lately.
Three of Lodolo's past four starts have lasted at least six innings, with the last two reaching a full seven. He has done this despite facing the Dodgers twice and the Cubs (MLB's top offense vs. LHP) in his past three starts.
Unfortunately, Lodolo is still struggling to suppress runs and generate strikeouts. A 5.69 xERA and 5.33 xFIP back his 4.38 ERA in these past four starts due to his mediocre 4.9% K-BB.
The matchups may have impacted his underlying metrics, but his full-season 7.8% K-BB is not much better. Lodolo is a lucky SP who can get crushed at any moment.
He is also struggling away from his Bandbox home park somehow. Great American Ballpark is a hitter's park, yet Lodolo has a 5.97 ERA and .418 wOBA allowed on the road this season (both figures significantly worse than his home marks).
Meanwhile, Jose Soriano is finding his groove in Toronto, but getting unlucky. A 3.80 xERA and 3.60 xFIP back his 5.10 ERA since August 29. Soriano is due for some regression in this final start against the league's worst offense against RHP.
Cincinnati is not only struggling against RHP, but they are struggling offensively in the past month. Their 70 wRC+ is second-worst in baseball, while the Blue Jays' 97 wRC+ is around league average.
Toronto has a fresh bullpen and should be able to hold a lead comfortably.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-154)
Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Pick
The 2026 Jacob deGrom is the definition of "Unc still got it". His 3.86 ERA is higher than usual, but this is with a 3.35 xERA, 3.10 xFIP, and 3.09 SIERA. He is still one of the best starters in baseball, especially in the past month.
DeGrom has a 2.22 ERA since August 29, with a 1.93 xERA, 2.71 FIP, and 2.50 xFIP. The veteran ace is as good as ever in this recent stretch.
The opposing starter, Joe Ryan, is not as fortunate since returning from a midseason injury. Ryan has a similar 3.83 ERA on the season as deGrom, but he has a 5.54 ERA in his three starts in September. Also, a 5.73 xERA and 5.03 xFIP back this 5.54 ERA.
The Rangers have a significant pitching advantage in this matchup, even with a depleted bullpen. The Rangers may not have any RP available aside from closer Jacob Latz, Robert Garcia, and Nathan Eovaldi.
Luckily, these are three of their highest-leverage arms. Minnesota had their bullpen arms used heavily mid-week, but an off-day on Thursday saved them from any losses.
Nevertheless, even with Minnesota's offense much stronger than the Rangers' against RHP this season, the Rangers' past 30 days (102 wRC+) should be weighed more for today's matchup against the Twins (93 wRC+).
Pick: Texas Rangers ML (-110)
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Pick
Bryce Miller's season is a roller coaster. He started the year with a 2.80 ERA from May 13 through July 31, with a 2.68 xERA and 3.56 SIERA. Miller has a 6.28 ERA, with a 5.70 xERA and 4.71 xFIP since August.
This would be an easy pitcher to fade against Reid Detmers, who has been excellent all season, but we are riding with Miller. His 3.38 ERA in September is fugazi (according to peripherals), but back-to-back starts in brutal road environments (Rockies and Athletics) are not helping anyone.
Miller is also a much better pitcher at home than on the road this season. His 3.66 ERA at home comes with a 19.6% K-BB, 0.96 WHIP, and 3.63 xFIP; all better than away from T-Mobile Park.
Furthermore, Reid Detmers is slightly worse on the road, with a lower strikeout rate, higher walk rate, and higher wOBA allowed.
Seattle's offense is also the fifth-best in baseball in the past 30 days, and they have improved against LHP since Cal Raleigh figured out how to hit again last month. The Angels are the third-worst offense in baseball in the past month (84 wRC+) and the fourth-worst against RHP this season (91 wRC+).
With the Mariners' bullpen at full strength, they are the easy side to take tonight.
Pick: Seattle Mariners ML (-120)
