The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on August 16, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers picks: Over 7.5 (-113) | Play to Over 8 (-110)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +100 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -120 |
Padres vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Dylan Cease (SDP) | Stat | Blake Snell (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-10 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.52/3.38 | ERA /xERA | 2.37/4.43 |
| 3.44/3.30 | FIP / xFIP | 3.90/3.80 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.53 |
| 21.6 | K-BB% | 12.6 |
| 37.3 | GB% | 40.7 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 100 | Location+ | 121 |
Kenny Ducey’s Padres vs Dodgers Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Fade Cease on the Road
Ah, Dylan Cease. An exhibition on what makes a good pitcher. Do you like guys who live in extremes, producing either a walk, strikeout, or homer? Is that good? Well, then, by your definition, Cease is good.
By mine, however, Cease isn't good. Yes, the strikeout numbers are excellent; he's punched out 30.7% of the batters he's faced this season — up slightly from 2024 and way up from 2023. He's also walked 9.1% of the batters he's faced this season, and while that's technically below his career average, it's still well above the league norm. On top of that, he's near the league-high with 17 home runs allowed, even pitching in a friendly home park, and when he's lost those protections on the road, things have become very dicey.
Cease owns a 5.52 road ERA — almost two full runs higher than the reverse split — and he'll be hoping to pitch to some flyouts inside Dodger Stadium. Though he's got an ERA just over three runs in his career versus the Dodgers, he's allowed a 6.46 in three regular-season starts in L.A., allowing 11 hits and seven walks over 15 1/3 innings.
The most recent iteration was just a couple of months ago on June 16, where Cease was rocked and charged with six earned runs over five frames. Though the Dodgers struck out nine times and walked just once, it was quite easy for them to take his very hittable deliveries and make them hurt.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Snell Unproven in Dodger Blue
Blake Snell has long been a pitcher viewed quite similarly to Cease, but it's been hard to call him a bad pitcher at certain points in his career.
Moving to a more pitcher-friendly park in San Diego initially helped Snell settle down a bit in the counting stats, and in San Francisco last season, he became a revelation. Though he made it just half a season, he struck out 34.7% of the batters he faced, which was far and away the best season of his career.
We've only seen him pitch four times so far in 2025, so the jury is very much still out on how Snell will look in a Dodgers uniform. Through those 19 innings, Snell has, however, found a decent amount of strikeouts — posting a 25.3% clip — and he's continued to walk a ton of batters with 11 reaching base on balls.
Snell is going to need another spectacular season in the strikeout department to find his Cy Young form, and the Padres aren't exactly known for striking out. They do, however, hit fly-ballers a bit better than ground-ballers as a result of their contact-first approach, and while Snell isn't there yet this season, he's been a firm fly-ball pitcher for the last four years.
The good news is that Snell's been much better of late, posting an Expected Batting Average right below .200 in his last two starts with a sub-.300 Expected Slugging, and he's generated an insane 43% whiff rate in those two starts — against the Rays and Jays. Things are looking up for the lefty.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Padres have been slowly overtaking the Dodgers in the division — up until last night's loss — and in the last few weeks, they've been leaving their rivals in the dust offensively. Though the gap has drawn closer in the last two weeks, it's still the Padres and their 122 wRC+ that wins out in this matchup with the Dodgers sitting a few spots behind.
Over that time, the Dodgers have continued an unusually high 22.6% strikeout rate, but most crucially, they've walked in a hefty 12.1% of their plate appearances in the last two weeks. With both teams ranking inside the top three in walks over that span, neither pitcher should have any degree of comfort here, and for Cease, I do fear the Dodgers and their much stronger power numbers may compound those issues and once again turn this into a nightmarish start in a park he's never pitched well in.
On the opposite end, I'm not ready to safely call Snell a target from a betting standpoint without much data, and this is a tough matchup on paper given San Diego's excellent plate discipline and menacing contact numbers.
With the Dodgers' bullpen also struggling over the last few weeks, I think the coast is clear to bet on both offenses.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-113) | Play to Over 8 (-110)
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I see no value in the run line.
Over/Under
Take the over in tonight's Padres vs. Dodgers matchup.
