The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Diego Padres on May 13, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Brewers are favored by -146 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +124 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Brewers Prediction
- Padres vs Brewers Pick: Under 7 (-104)
My Padres vs Brewers best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 7 -118o / -104u | +124 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 7 -118o / -104u | -146 |
- Padres vs Brewers moneyline: Padres +124, Brewers -146
- Padres vs Brewers over/under: 7 (-118o / -104u)
- Padres vs Brewers spread: Padres +1.5 (-176), Brewers -1.5 (-146)
Padres vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Michael King (SDP) | Stat | RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 2.76/3.76 | ERA / xERA | 2.45/2.73 |
| 3.86/4.11 | FIP / xFIP | 2.62/2.40 |
| 13.9% | K-BB% | 29.9% |
| 45.8% | GB% | 40.0% |
| .224 | BABIP | .259 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 125 |
| 95 | Location+ | 96 |
Padres vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
King has quietly developed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. According to Baseball Savant, he continues to rank near the top of baseball in chase rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit suppression. The sweeper has become one of the nastiest pitches in the league, and hitters still struggle to pick him up because everything tunnels so well off the sinker.
What makes King so dangerous is how difficult it is to string together quality contact against him. He limits walks, misses bats in key situations, and rarely allows innings to spiral. Even when teams get traffic on the bases, he has the arsenal to escape without damage. His underlying metrics continue matching the results every time he takes the mound.
San Diego’s bullpen has been even more dominant lately, especially with Mason Miller locking down the backend. Miller has looked completely unhittable through the first month of 2026. The strikeout rate is absurd, the ERA is barely above 1.00, and hitters have struggled to generate any hard contact against him. He’s once again near the top of baseball in fastball velocity and whiff percentage.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
On the other side, Misiorowski has some of the best raw stuff in baseball already. The velocity immediately stands out because he’s already touched 103 mph multiple times this season, but the secondary pitches are what have taken him to another level in 2026.
The slider has become a legitimate wipeout pitch, and hitters are producing very little quality contact against him. Misiorowski has been one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to barrel through the first month of the season.
The strikeout numbers have been elite, but the contact profile might be even more impressive. Opposing hitters simply are not squaring him up consistently. His last outing against the Yankees showed exactly why the ceiling is so high. He struck out 11 hitters across six shutout innings and completely overpowered one of the better offenses in baseball.
Once he gets ahead in counts, at-bats become extremely uncomfortable because hitters have to respect triple-digit velocity while also protecting against the slider.
The bullpen matchup only strengthens the under case. Milwaukee entered Wednesday with a bullpen ERA sitting around the mid-3.00s, which ranks among the better marks in baseball early this season.
The Brewers have consistently gotten quality late-inning work from Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill, and they’ve done a strong job limiting damage once games get into the middle innings.
Padres vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
There’s a strong case for the Under 7 tonight in Milwaukee, and the early market movement already tells part of the story. This total opened at 7.5 and was quickly bet down to 7 overnight. That’s not surprising considering the pitching matchup we’re getting with Michael King and Jacob Misiorowski on the mound.
This also feels like one of those games where offense cools down after a higher-scoring game the night before. Both lineups saw much more hittable pitching yesterday. I wouldn’t bat an eye if this ends up being a 1-0/2-1 final.
That’s what makes this under feel so strong. It’s not just two aces starting the game, but it’s handing the ball off to reliable late-inning arms afterward. With two dominant starters, elite swing-and-miss stuff on both sides, and strong bullpen support behind them, this feels much more like a 3-2 type of game than a slugfest.
I will definitely be taking the Under 7, but I think it is worth laddering alternate unders as well.
Pick: Under 7 (-104)
