Padres vs. Phillies MLB Odds & Pick: Bet San Diego to Win Big on Saturday (July 3)

The San Diego Padres somehow sit in fourth place in the National League West with Yu Darvish taking the hill against Zach Eflin and the Philadelphia Phillies.

These starting pitchers are two of the most notorious non-walkers in the MLB. Eflin ranks in the 99^th percentile in walk percentage, and Darvish ranks in the 81^st.  Darvish is definitely the household name between these two, so is there truly a betting angle on the slumping Phillies in this one?

Darvish in Sticky Situation for Padres

Unfortunately, spin rate is a constant topic of discussion when handicapping a baseball game. Something to keep an eye on is Yu Darvish’s spin numbers. From May to June, he was down 148 RPMs on his cutter, 99 RPMs on his fastball, 164 RPMs on his slider and 202 RPMs on his sinker. Essentially every pitcher has used some form of a gripping agent, even if it was just something mixed with rosin, but this is something to keep an eye on for every pitcher.

However, Darvish has such an elusive arsenal, spin rate reduction has not hurt him in his last few starts. In June, he still had a 3.04 ERA in 29 1/3 innings pitched and even recorded his season-high in strikeouts (11). I do not believe the Phillies will be able to make their mark on him, since he has seemed to adjust to the newly enforced rules by MLB.

When facing Eflin, the Padre lineup needs to be prepared to swing the bat, but having a few guys cross the 10%-threshold on their walk rate is beneficial when a guy mainly throws strikes. They also have six players over 100 wRC+ since June 1 against right-handers. This is a massive edge. Tommy Pham and Fernando Tatis Jr. have been the anchors of this team’s offense, so I would expect them to take the right pitches and string together enough hits to shorten Zach Eflin’s appearance.

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Phillies Struggling at the Plate

Even with multiple relievers sidelined for much of the season, the Padres have the best combined relief ERA in the Major Leagues (2.90). However, with a team xFIP of 3.86, they are most definitely over-performing at the moment. That said, 3.86 is still solid, and they have enough arms at the backend of the relief corps to mow down a poor-hitting Phillies team. They more than likely need to make a deal for a strikeout-type closer at the deadline, but this should not be an issue with Philadelphia.

As stated above, the Phillies are struggling. In the month of June, they only have four hitters over 100 wRC+ when facing a righty. Getting Jean Segura back was a needed jolt to this lineup, but if five mainstays continue to struggle and they have to face Yu Darvish, the window of opportunity is nearly closed to begin the game. They need Odúbel Herrera and J.T. Realmuto to bounce back because otherwise, they have no shot against a pitcher of Darvish’s caliber.

The Phillies bullpen is also weak. Losing Sam Coonrod and his serviceable 3.72 xFIP and 28 innings pitched was a massive letdown for an already ailing bullpen. Ranger Suárez is also well on his way towards the regression monster with his 0.93 ERA and 3.49 xFIP. Bailey Falter and Spencer Howard are decent options out of the ‘pen, but they do not have a lockdown set of relievers. Given that hurdle, the Padres get the advantage, even with Mark Melancon having to close out games for them.

Padres-Phillies Pick

There is no angle to take the Phillies in this extremely slanted matchup. The Padres have the edge with starting pitching, their relievers, and their lineup. Darvish’s slowed spin rate has not slowed his success rate. The Phillies lineup should still struggle. Take the Padres run line -1 (-120) and play to -145.

Pick: San Diego Padres -1 (-120)