The Toronto Blue Jays host the San Diego Padres on May 20, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SN1.
Oddsmakers are offering the Padres a 55.5% chance of winning Tuesday's series opener versus the Blue Jays, which will feature a quality pitching matchup of Dylan Cease (4.60 ERA, 47 IP) taking on Chris Bassitt (3.16 ERA, 51 1/3 IP).
Find my Padres vs Blue Jays prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Picks
- Padres vs Blue Jays Pick: Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120 · Play to -125)
My Blue Jays vs. Padres best bet is Dylan Cease to go under 5.5 strikeouts. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Padres vs Blue Jays Odds, Line, Spread
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Projected Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) | Stat | RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.60 / 3.69 | ERA / xERA | 3.16 / 3.22 |
| 3.23 / 3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 3.18 / 3.21 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 19.7% | K-BB% | 20.4% |
| 36.8% | GB% | 48.1% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Padres vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Cease has trended into better form after an ugly start to the season.
He's posted a 2.91 ERA and 3.51 xFIP across his past four outings, striking out 11.6 batters per nine innings behind a 107 Stuff+ rating and 18.7% swinging-strike rate during the stretch.
San Diego's dominant bullpen enters this matchup well-rested.
The Padres had an off day on Monday, and all three starters worked at least five innings during their weekend series in Seattle.
The bullpen has been less effective recently, but they still hold a 3.26 ERA on the season and are widely considered MLB's best.
With Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth back in the lineup, the Padres provide a formidable test for Bassitt. The lineup has posted a 112 wRC+ over the past two weeks and a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
There are many positives regarding the Blue Jays' offensive process, though their actual output of runs per game has not been overly strong.
They have elevated their hard-hit rate to 41% compared to last year's mark of 37% and rank sixth among MLB lineups in expected batting average. They also have the league's lowest whiff rate (22.6%) and the second-fewest out-of-zone swings and misses.
Toronto has struck out only 19.5% of the time against right-handed pitching with a 31.3% hard-hit rate.
The Blue Jays' strong offensive process has started to yield better results recently, as they've posted a 126 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Dalton Varsho's return has helped, as he's slugged .635 with a .590 expected slugging across his first 14 games.
Bassitt has struggled to a 4.76 ERA across his past four starts, but his underlying metrics suggest he is still pitching reasonably well (3.75 xFIP, 16.7% strikeout minus walk rate).
Padres vs Blue Jays Pick, Best Bets
The Blue Jays would be my lean side in this matchup at their current price of +105, as they have begun to live up to expectations offensively of late and appear to have a slight pitching edge with Bassitt compared to Cease.
My favorite play lies in backing Cease to record under 5.5 strikeouts at -120, as that number appears too high in this matchup, probably because he's struck out 19 over his past two starts.
The Blue Jays have shown strong plate discipline this season and have seen plenty of pitches from right-handed starters. They don't strike out often and they're in their better split on Tuesday.
Pick: Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120 · Play to -125)
