The Washington Nationals host the San Diego Padres on July 20, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN and MLB.TV.
The Padres enter as -120 favorites on the moneyline, while the over/under comes in at 8 total runs.
Find my Padres vs Nationals prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Nationals Prediction
- Padres vs. Nationals Pick: Under 8
My Nationals vs. Padres best bet is for both teams to go under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Nationals Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -110o / -110u | -101 |
Padres vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP) | Stat | LHP MacKenzie Gore (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | W-L | 4-8 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 2.88/ 3.79 | ERA /xERA | 3.02/ 3.39 |
| 3.11/ 3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 2.92/ 3.19 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 21.4% | K-BB% | 22.7% |
| 33.0% | GB% | 35.8% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 101 | Location+ | 99 |
Padres vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
Nick Pivetta is expected to start pitching for the Padres, while MacKenzie Gore will take the home team's pitching spot.
Pivetta's strong form could lead him to become the first Padre to reach 10 wins this season.
However, the Nats also have a key player for this game. Riley Adams has thrown out a career-high nine would-be base stealers this season off 27 attempts.
Evan Abrams' system targets unders in regular-season MLB games where softer home starting pitchers ā with low strikeout rates and moderate WHIPs ā are on the mound in Games 3 or 4 of a series.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and the winds remain neutral.
The setup avoids exaggerated run environments by filtering out strong directional wind influence, keeping offensive surges in check.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
With the system at play, we'll take the under on Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Under 8
