The San Francisco Giants host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 8, 2026. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
The Pirates are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Giants Prediction
- Pirates vs Giants Pick: Under 7.5 (-105, FanDuel) | Play to -115
My Pirates vs Giants best bet is under 7.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Giants Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -104 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -112 |
- Pirates vs Giants moneyline: Pirates -104, Giants -112
- Pirates vs Giants over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Pirates vs Giants spread: Pirates -1.5 (+162), Giants +1.5 (-196)
Pirates vs Giants Probable Pitchers
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Stat | TBD |
|---|---|---|
| 19-16 | W-L | 14-21 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | |
| 4.76 / 4.40 | ERA / xERA | |
| 2.49 / 3.36 | FIP / xFIP | |
| 17.5 | K-BB% | |
| 45.4 | GB% | |
| .378 | BABIP | |
| 93 | Stuff+ | |
| 108 | Location+ |
Pirates vs Giants MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: A Sinker-Friendly Opponent
The Pirates are back up and running after a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Cardinals last week, taking five of their last six with back-to-back series wins over the Reds and Diamondbacks. Now, they will remain out West and try to push further above .500 against the struggling Giants this weekend.
First up on the hill is Carmen Mlodzinski, an interesting young righty who's yo-yoing a bit this season. We've seen the potential at times, with Mlodzinski striking out eight or more on two occasions, and his strikeout rate is now at an impressive 26% on the year. That represents a career best, but the downside of this growth has been evident.
Mlodzinski is still ironing things out with his fastballs, more specifically his sinker. It produced a 66% ground-ball rate in 2025, leading to a .323 Expected Batting Average and .372 Expected Slugging Percentage, but just about 42% of the contact off his sinker is coming back on the ground this season. That's meant a huge jump in the expected numbers on the offering, with his xBA hiking up 24 points and his xSLG hitting .522 in the early going.
The good news is that the Giants hit the ball on the ground almost as much as anyone in the league, so perhaps Mlodzinski's struggles to manage his outs on contact will subside a bit as San Francisco pounds the ball into the dirt. He does have the 11th-best infield behind him, judging by Outs Above Average, but his hard-hit rate has skyrocketed to 54.1%, which is going to make it more difficult for his fielders to steal away outs.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Robbie Ray Against the World
The Giants are in a world of trouble, having lost eight of nine, and now it appears something could be afoot on Friday with Tony Vitello yet to announce a starting pitcher. It is Robbie Ray's turn in the rotation, and considering he's in the midst of an excellent season, posting a 2.95 ERA across seven starts, it's fair to speculate about his health. Everything seemed fine last time out against the Rays, where his fastball velocity was actually at a season high.
Regardless, we'll just proceed as if Ray's taking the ball here. It wouldn't seem to make any sense to push the starters back with the bullpen getting used heavily on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it also would make little sense to have an opener for Ray, who's looked comfortable on the mound and who owns a 1.29 ERA in the first inning this season — something he's been known for.
If he does suit up, we're looking at a heavy fly-ball pitcher facing a Pirates offense that loves putting the ball on the ground — much like San Francisco. That will make for a great matchup, considering Pittsburgh ranks just 21st in OPS against fly-ball pitchers this season, though Ray's frequent bouts with control could prove costly against a Pittsburgh team walking more than 10% of the time.
Ray's xSLG is back up to .447 this season from around .386 or so in his last two full years, which is always cause for concern with how he pitches, but at least all the fly balls in San Francisco have been relatively harmless and his xBA has come in at a comfortable .210. The Pirates are running a weak .141 isolated power mark with plenty of strikeouts to boot, so Ray should be able to play to his strengths here.
Pirates vs Giants Pick, Betting Analysis
The Pirates are winning baseball games right now, but it's not exactly due to the offense. They've scored just six runs in their last four games, and now they're heading into a problematic matchup with Ray — the lone glimmer of hope in a Giants rotation that's largely been a disappointment.
San Francisco draws the easier of the two pitchers, sure, but its offense loves to put the ball on the ground just like Pittsburgh's, which should help Mlodzinski remedy his issues with the sinker. More groundouts should mean a cleaner game this go-around, and San Francisco's frequent strikeouts should also have the righty looking sharp.
I know it's not exactly a novel concept to hit the late-night under in San Francisco, but the offenses are cold and the matchups are right.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105, FanDuel) | Play to -115
