The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 14, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Cubs are favored by -182 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+118) on the run line. The Cardinals are +169 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-142) on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction
- Cardinals vs Cubs Pick: Cubs Over 4.5 Team Runs (-105)
My Cardinals vs Cubs best bet is on Chicago to record over 4.5 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Cubs Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -109o / -110u | +169 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -109o / -110u | -182 |
- Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline: Cardinals +169, Cubs -182
- Cardinals vs Cubs over/under: 8 (-109o / -11ou)
- Cardinals vs Cubs spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-142), Cubs -1.5 (+118)
Cardinals vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| Matthew Liberatore (LHP, STL) | Stat | Clay Holmes (RHP, CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 5.15/5.00 | ERA / xERA | 2.86/4.22 |
| 4.70/4.23 | FIP / xFIP | 3.49/3.72 |
| 13.4% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 37.2% | GB% | 57.9% |
| .342 | BABIP | .259 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 100 | Location+ | 101 |
Cardinals vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
It's a Matthew Liberatore day for the Cardinals as they head into Wrigley for a classic Friday afternoon 2:20 showdown. And it's not a good spot for the birds.
Matthew Liberatore now has a 5.15 ERA on the season with a 1.52 WHIP. The silver lining is that his SIERA is much better at 4.22, and he does have around a league average strikeout rate (22%). He has had big starts, so he can pitch well.
Over his last seven starts, he has a 26% K% with a 9% BB% and a 4.25 ERA. But he consistently hangs pitches over the plate and has trouble with command, so runs are pretty easy to come by on him.
The Cubs have been tearing up lefties this summer. Since June 1st, they're hitting .290/.374/.520 as a team against left-handed pitching. PCA and Seiya Suzuki have elite numbers, and now Alex Bregman has joined the party with a massive month of August featuring four homers in his last two games.
So we're not feeling good about backing Liberatore in this particular spot.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
For the Cubs, it's the second start for Clay Holmes. His Cubs debut didn't go super well. Four innings, six hits, four runs, one strikeout in four innings against the Royals.
It was his first start back after missing almost five months to injury, so you can forgive that. His velo was down a little bit in that debut, and generally he just didn't have the same quality of stuff.
Holmes is a ground ball pitcher. He has a 58% GB% this year, and that's what the Cubs would like to maintain from him with their elite infield defense. They made a point to go get some ground ball pitchers at the deadline.
The Cardinals have a high 46% team GB% against righties going back to June, so it's a good spot for Holmes to keep the ball down and not give up a ton of damage via the extra base hit.
Cardinals vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
I think we'll see some runs. There's some wind blowing in, but it's nothing insane. Both of these bullpens are in pretty rough shape, both ranked in the bottom half of the bullpen list today. And I like the matchups for both offenses.
My game sim total from my projections averages out to nearly ten runs per game here. It's possible that the winds will be a bigger problem for run scoring than I think right now. These Wrigley spots get weird with the winds and the game totals.
Let's look quickly at Alex Bregman. Over his last 114 PAs, he's hitting .304/.377/.588 with seven homers and an 18% K%. He hasn't hit his homers very hard; he somehow managed three homers under 99mph on Wednesday. That's not something you ever see.
He has a very high FB% against lefties, which would be good news today if not for the winds blowing in. I would be looking for ways to fade this Bregman hot streak. The way I can see to do that on DraftKings is with an under 0.5 hits bet.
I just think this is a spot where he takes a walk and hits a few lazy flyouts. But you can get creative with that; maybe there are some under-home-run bets to take advantage of on some sites.
My main lean after full consideration is that the Cubs score some runs in this spot. They are crushing lefties, and they've seen a lot of Liberatore the last couple of years. I think they crush in this one. But I don't really trust Clay Holmes, either, so I'd rather not bet on the Cubs to win the game at the price.
Pick: Chicago Cubs Over 4.5 Team Runs (-105)
