The Cleveland Guardians host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 29, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Cardinals snagged a win in the first two games in Cleveland and are -130 favorites to pull off the sweep.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cardinals vs Guardians Prediction
- Cardinals vs Guardians picks: Cardinals ML -130 (play to -150)
My Cardinals vs Guardians best bet is Cardinals ML -130 (play to -150). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Guardians Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8.5 -107 / -113 | -122 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -163 | 8.5 -107 / -113 | +104 |
Cardinals vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Liberatore (STL) | Stat | LHP Logan Allen (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.96/3.69 | ERA /xERA | 4.25/4.58 |
| 2.98/3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 4.44/4.86 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 5.8 | K-BB% | 1.7 |
| 41.9% | GB% | 43.4% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 103 | Location+ | 94 |
Sean Paul's Cardinals vs Guardians Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
The Guardians looked well on their way to making this a rubber match game. After a disastrous sixth inning, Cleveland saw a 6-1 lead turn into an 8-6 deficit in a blink.
Now, it's all in the hands of the inconsistent Logan Allen to salvage this series. Allen has struggled thus far in 2025, posting 4.25 ERA, 4.58 xERA, and 4.44 FIP in 15 outings.
Allen doesn't allow much hard contact, as he sits in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and 91st in hard-hit rate. However, Allen ranks in the 14th percentile in strikeout rate and 27th in walk rate, which drags his pitch count up. It's nice that Allen generates soft contact, but that's the only thing he's good at doing.
All it took was Sonny Gray putting together the best pitching outing of the year, and the Pirates scoring eight in the series opener against the Mets lifted their wRC+ to 77, while the Guardians dropped to a whopping 70 in June.
Cleveland has a pretty lethal combination of a 25% strikeout rate with a .121 isolated power (28th in June) and 19 home runs (26th in June). The DNA of more recent good Guardians teams is putting the ball in play and forcing teams to make plays. That’s far from the case this year.
You’ll see a lot of lineup changes once a right-handed reliever replaces Liberatore, as Kyle Manzardo will likely sit against the lefty starter for David Fry, Nolan Jones will sit for Jonathan Rodriguez and Austin Hedges likely draws the start at catcher.
The only two hitters producing consistently are Jose Ramirez and lefty-masher Lane Thomas, who boasts a 114 wRC+ in 16 games this month. Thomas will need to help out Ramirez and leadoff hitter Steven Kwan for Cleveland to conquer Liberatore.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Looking through Matthew Liberatore's season is interesting. You'd think a 3.96 ERA means he's had a lot of inconsistent outings. It's quite the contrary, though. Beyond a pair of outings in early June where Liberatore allowed 12 earned runs, he's had an ERA in the low 3s.
Liberatore had just four "bad" outings all year. The two in June, his last start in May against the Rangers and his second start of the year. He's allowed two or fewer runs in every other outing this year.
I'm buying into Liberatore posting a strong outing. He has a dazzling 2.98 xERA and 3.67 xFIP, which points to things turning around. Liberatore has morphed into one of the sport's premier strike throwers. That might not sound like a compliment, but the towering southpaw ranks in the 98th percentile in walk rate.
The Cardinals lineup isn't built to hit left-handed pitching. Two of the more reliable bat-to-ball hitters in the Cardinals lineup in Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson, have severe splits pointing towards righties. Despite that, St. Louis is basically forced to play them because it doesn't have better options, and both can work good at-bats.
St. Louis lacks a true southpaw killer, but Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras have a wRC+ above 100 against lefties. It'll be huge for that pair to play a role in the Cardinals getting to Allen.
I'd definitely give the Cardinals offense the edge. They've punched out just 19% of the time in June, while ranking ninth with 31 home runs. The Cardinals have a different gear offensively that the Guardians simply can't match.
Once Liberatore departs, the Cardinals bullpen will have a full arsenal of weapons ready to attack. All of St. Louis's main bullpen arms, namely JoJo Romero, Kyle Leahy, Phil Maton and Ryan Helsley, will all be able to pitch. Helsley looks to have found his form after a rough start, holding opponents scoreless in four straight outings.
Cardinals vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm rolling with the Cardinals for the sweep here. It's far to be wary about taking a road favorite team who has their eyes on a sweep. But I'm a big fan of Liberatore and I think he shuts down this anemic Guardians offense. It's tough to envision a strong scoring outburst from Cleveland unless Ramirez puts forth an MVP performance.
I'll take St. Louis up to -150.
Pick: Cardinals ML -130 (play to -150)
Moneyline
I'm going with the Cardinals here.
Run Line (Spread)
I will not be betting on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm also not betting on game totals.
