Sunday MLB Odds & Picks: Wrong Team Favored in Padres vs. Rockies (August 2)

Padres vs. Rockies Odds

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Visiting pitchers tend to not enjoy their time on the mound at Coors Field due to the thin air and high altitude, but the Rockies know they have to embrace this and view their home park as more of a strength than a weakness.

To combat this, the Rockies have changed how their scouting department profiles potential pitching targets by focusing more on those with a higher soft contact rate or swing-and-miss pitches than simply ground ball pitchers as they’ve done in the past.

The Rockies now have their pitchers throw more off-speed pitches as part of their arsenal, and that will come into play Sunday.

Rockies Probable Pitcher

Antonio Senzatela looks to follow this strategy when he takes the mound on Sunday. He's not a big swing and miss pitcher with just a 7.4% swinging strike rate for his career, but he does induce soft contact. Last year, Senzatela ranked 53rd in that mark of 158 starts who pitched at least 60 innings.

Senzatela has enjoyed success against the Padres through his career. He’s 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 appearances and six starts.

At home, Senzatela has yet to lose a decision. He’s 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA in six appearances with three starts.

Padres Probable Pitcher

Senzatela will be opposed by Padres pitcher Zach Davies, who makes his second start at Coors field. Davies has made four starts against the Rockies with mixed results while pitching for his former team the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee was 2-2 in his starts with a loss of .65 units for their backers.

Davies doesn't force many swings and misses either, with just a 6.38 K/9 rate in his career, but can induce soft contact.

Betting Analysis

The Rockies find themselves atop the National League West and have won every series thus far this season. The Rockies have to be buoyant about this considering each of those series took place on the road.

In 2019, Colorado was 43-38 (53%), returning 4.38 units for their backers. If we focus just on Senzatela’s 2019 home starts, the Rockies were even better with an 8-4 (67%) record for 5.6 units.

Head-to-head against the Padres last year at home, the Rockies were 7-3 for 3.38 units.

These are two good teams who figure to have their say in this divisional race in a shortened season before it’s all said and done.

For me, this spot is all about the Rockies and I’m not looking to get in front of this train, particularly when they're playing at home.

The fact we’re catching the Rockies as home dogs in this spot is surprising and the market seems to share that sentiment as the line has dropped to +110 since the opening number of +115.

I like the Rockies to continue to enjoy the home-cooking when facing the Padres. I’ll gladly back the dog here and look for the Rockies make it three series wins in a row.

Pick: Rockies +108 (play down to -110)

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