The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 27, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Rays are favored by -108 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction
- Rays vs Orioles Pick: Rays Moneyline
My Rays vs Orioles best bet is on Tampa Bay to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9 -110o / -110u | -108 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 9 -110o / -110u | -108 |
- Rays vs Orioles moneyline: Rays -108, Orioles -108
- Rays vs Orioles over/under: 9 (-110o / -110u)
- Rays vs Orioles spread: Rays -1.5 (+146), Orioles +1.5 (-176)
Rays vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| Steven Matz | Stat | TBD |
|---|---|---|
| 34-17 | W-L | 24-30 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | |
| 3.70 / 4.46 | ERA / xERA | |
| 4.53 / 4.27 | FIP / xFIP | |
| 10.8 | K-BB% | |
| 35.9 | GB% | |
| .225 | BABIP | |
| 98 | Stuff+ | |
| 104 | Location+ |
Rays vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
Rays vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
The first-place Rays dropped the first two games of this series against the Orioles. We'll see if they can salvage it with a win on Wednesday.
Steven Matz is on the bump for the Rays, and his journey back to the rotation has been a bumpy ride.
Matz is pitching to a 3.70 ERA, but his 4.44 xERA and 4.52 FIP paint a less rosy picture. Tough days could be coming for Matz if his predictive metrics are an indicator.
In fairness to Matz, he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his eight starts. The Rays have asked Matz to be a reliable innings eater, and he's done just that.
The Rays dropped the series opener due to a bullpen implosion in extras. But Game 2 was odd. The Rays had nine hits but scored just one run and struck out nine times. They strike out the fewest of any team in MLB at just an 18% rate, so that was an unusual game.
I expect better days from this Tampa Bay offense. In May, the Rays have a 111 wRC+, good for fourth best in the league. They walk 9.4% of the time in addition to their elite strikeout rate. That will make pitchers work and take starters out of the game early.
The trio of Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz carries this Rays offense. Each of the three has a wRC+ better than 140 in May with a slugging percentage over .480.
The Orioles are still in fourth place in the American League East, but picking up a pair of wins over the Rays will help from a confidence standpoint.
On the mound is Trey Gibson, a 24-year-old rookie who will make his second career start. He started one game and came out of the bullpen in another, posting a 5.40 ERA in 6 2/3 innings.
In the minor leagues, Gibson had a 3.69 ERA with a 4.44 FIP in eight starts at Triple-A Norfolk. He has a big fastball, ranging from 94-97 mph, which looks a bit faster due to his extension.
However, Gibson walked 5.40 batters per nine innings in Triple-A and struck out 9.05 per nine. In his couple of big league outings, he walked three hitters and struck out four.
May has been a tough month for the Orioles lineup. They have a woeful 90 wRC+, putting them 20th in MLB. Another issue for Baltimore is swinging and missing, as it has a 24% strikeout rate this month — the second worst in baseball.
The harsh reality is that this Orioles offense has a capped ceiling if Gunnar Henderson doesn't start hitting. He went 0-for-13 over his last three games and has an OPS below .600 in May. The only two consistent hitters have been Samuel Basallo, who cracked a three-run homer on Tuesday, and Pete Alonso.
I see real value in taking the Rays at -115. You could argue the Rays might be a bit fraudulent. There's a case for that, given their bat-to-ball DNA being most of their offensive approach. The reason to back the Rays is because Gibson is taking the mound for Baltimore. Tampa Bay will make him work, and his lack of command has stung him at all levels.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-110, betMGM)
