The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 25, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
These teams split the first two games of this series. This afternoon, Drew Rasmussen will start for the Rays, and Cade Povich will get the ball for the Orioles.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rays vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rays vs Orioles Prediction
- Rays vs Orioles pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
My Rays vs Orioles best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +105 |
Rays vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Drew Rasmussen (TB) | Stat | LHP Cade Povich (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 3-8 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 2.80 / 3.46 | ERA / xERA | 5.06 / 5.65 |
| 3.86 / 3.71 | FIP / xFIP | 4.26 / 3.93 |
| 1.01 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 15.5 | K-BB% | 15.8 |
| 49.3 | GB% | 40.5 |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Rays vs Orioles Preview
The Orioles have scored 17 runs in their past seven games, averaging 2.43. They will face the Rays' Drew Rasmussen, who has had an outstanding 2025 season, worthy of an All-Star game appearance.
Baltimore has been dreadful in September, ranking 27th in wRC+ with a 76 rating.
Tampa Bay ranks 16th in wRC+ this year, but falls to the 21st spot against left-handed pitchers such as Cade Povich, today's Orioles starter.
Another factor is the Rays' competent bullpen, which ranks 10th this year with a 3.69 ERA.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation to go with the under in this game.
This MLB betting system, titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support", is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular season games from 2019 to 2025, where the closing total lands between 8 and 10—sweet spots for scoring volatility.
It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under. This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between those two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends. Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, backed by a high sample size and strong return on investment.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105, bet365)
Rays vs Orioles Betting Trends
