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The Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays on October 15, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Guardians are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Guardians Prediction
- Rays vs Guardians Pick: Under 6.5 (-105, 0.5u | Bet to -115)
My Rays vs Guardians best bet is under 6.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Rays vs Guardians Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 6.5 -118o / -104u | +110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 6.5 -118o / -104u | -130 |
- Rays vs Guardians moneyline: Rays +110, Guardians -130
- Rays vs Guardians over/under: 6.5 (-118o / -104u)
- Rays vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+172), Rays +1.5 (-205)
Rays vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Griffin Jax | Stat | Gavin Williams |
|---|---|---|
| 8-10 | W-L | 14-8 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 3.53 / 4.27 | ERA / xERA | 3.76 / 3.82 |
| 3.76 / 3.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.47 / 2.85 |
| 17.6 | K-BB% | 25.1 |
| 46 | GB% | 43.5 |
| .282 | BABIP | .288 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 107 | Location+ | 105 |
Rays vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
This was supposed to be a very easy article to write because I also had Game 3 of the ALDS between the Rays and Yankees. All I had to do was plagiarize my own work on Nick Martinez and the work would be nearly half done.
But the Rays decided to throw us a changeup (pun intended, Griffin Jax throws them 22.6% of the time) and confirm Jax for the Game 3 ALCS start instead of Martinez.
While it means more work for me, a healthy Jax is probably the better choice than Martinez, and over the next 750 or so words, I’ll attempt to explain why.
Jax entered the rotation on April 26, making 23 starts, encompassing 103.1 innings. He only exceeded five innings three times, all between June 30 and July 22, and also missed nearly the entire month of August, returning to face only 80 batters total over his last five starts, but when Jax was on the mound, the expectation was at least two quality trips through the order more often than not.
One thing we have to address is that Jax’s velocity fell half a mph from 95.8 mph to 95.3 mph after returning from his IL trip.
Truth be told, Jax averaged 96.1 mph over his first 15 starts and then 95.2 mph before hitting the IL, and if we take away his last meaningless three innings against the Phillies on September 26, he sat 95.7 mph in his previous start.
While he also posted just a 13.8 K-BB% since his return from the IL, he registered -5.9 K-BB% and 5.9 K-BB% in his first two starts back.
Overall, in a starting role, Jax authored an 18.8 K-BB% with 45.1% of his contact on the ground, allowing a league-average 8.2% Barrels/BBE and 38.4 K-BB%.
This resulted in a 3.07 ERA that was a bit below his 4.07 xERA, 3.43 FIP and 3.31 xFIP, with a 71.9 LOB% that registers a bit low for a pitcher with such strong peripherals, along with a 20% unearned run rate. Including his work in the pen, only 44 of Jax’s 56 runs allowed were earned.
Jax threw 18.3% four-seam fastballs during the season and 22.7% sinkers, and the sinkers were down nearly half a mph too when he returned, but also received that bump up back to normal in that next-to-last start.
We have two innings (32 pitches, five whiffs) of postseason work against the Yankees this year on record for Jax. He only threw five sinkers and three four-seamers, but sat above 96 mph on each pitch.
Assuming the postseason adrenaline carries over to his first start, there are two things I would expect from Jax:
- He’s not going to pitch deep into this game. Approaching five innings and twice through the lineup would probably be his ceiling. Perhaps Kevin Cash already has a specific plan laid out that allows for even less than that. Jax's Outs market would suggest four innings.
- He’ll probably do some quality work while he’s in there. I have him right around 3.5 runs per nine for the season.
Jax throws no pitch more often than his sweeper (25.1%), while filling out the rest of his arsenal with changeups (22.6%) and curveballs (8.7%) with a smattering of cutters (2.9%, but none since June 19).
RHBs are going to see mostly sweepers (39%) and sinkers (34%) with occasional four-seamers (14%) and changeups (11%).
LHBs are going to see five different pitches from 12% to 21% of the time with the changeup (29%) leading the way.
PitchingBot (3.04 Bot ERA) loves Jax’s arsenal, grading only his four-seam fastball (55) below 60 overall, and a lot of those grades were split evenly between stuff (59) and command (58).
Pitching+ (114) liked the sweeper (105) least, with every other offering generating at least a 110 P+ or better, including an MLB sixth-best 125 P+ on his sinker among those with at least 100 innings.
(All pitch modeling numbers in a starting role.)
Despite an effective changeup and likely because of the great sinker, Jax was a bit worse against LHBs (.307 wOBA, .320 xwOBA) than against RHBs (.281 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) this season.
We might also want to note that Jax's strikeout rate on the road dropped to 18.2%, 13.2 percentage points worse than at home, because we know that the Trop increases pitch movement.
The Guardians lineup will likely contain eight LHBs against Jax. The biggest question will probably be whether Petey Halpin will be one of those after replacing an ineffective Angel Martinez a few games back.
The Guardians have also chosen to give Austin Hedges some postseason time behind the plate, despite Patrick Bailey’s bat coming alive (196 wRC+ postseason).
The projected lineup with Halpin in averages a 101 wRC+ at home this season, 104 wRC+ (.145 ISO) vs RHP and 112 wRC+ in the postseason.
Aside from Bailey, Jose Ramirez (195 wRC+), Chase DeLauter (176) and Halpin (168) have been carrying this offense in October. No other projected starter exceeds an 81 wRC+ since the regular season ended.
The matchup for individual batters against Jax’s arsenal is mostly negative from a run value perspective, with only DeLauter and Nathaniel Lowe running barely positive run value numbers.
The Cleveland offense has been third-worst against both four-seamers and sliders among postseason teams, though the two teams worse against sliders are also still active (spoiler: one of them is also playing in this game). They have been third-best this postseason against the pitch they’ll likely see the most of against Jax: changeups (+4.57 wCH/C).
Jax was below average at holding runners (-3 Net Bases Prevented), with runners going on 2% of 547 opportunities against him. However, Liam Hicks had a top-20 catcher’s arm (3 CS Above Average), gunning down just 20% of expected runners, but against an expectation of 15%.
According to Statcast, there were only 15 baserunners to accumulate at least three runs via stolen bases, and one of them plays for each of these teams. The best Cleveland base stealer has been Ramirez (3 Runs via SB), and that’s certainly on the table here if he has an opportunity to run on Jax.
The projected Tampa Bay defense, which isn’t easy to nail down for reasons I’ll explain later, has accumulated 9 FRV (Fielding Run Value), similar to their team total of 10 Runs Prevented on the season, though their 6 OAA was just 15th.
The caveat being that 21 of those 9 FRV come from the outfield alone. The projected infield combines for -14 FRV, and Jax has the slightly above-average ground ball rate we mentioned above.
The Tampa Bay bullpen is BARTOLO’s sixth-ranked unit this season with a 3.80 wFIP. However, Tampa Bay relievers have combined to post a 2.26 FIP (1st), 2.75 xFIP (2nd) and 2.66 SIERA (2nd) this postseason and are extremely well rested with the day off after having to cover only three innings on 40 pitches on Tuesday.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
After posting double-digit strikeouts in eight of his last 14 regular season starts, Gavin Williams struck out 24 of 46 White Sox in the ALDS. Eight of the 16 batted balls he allowed were on the ground.
Williams struck out a career-best 33.2% of batters faced this season, dropping his walk rate to a career-low 8.2%. That kept even a troubling contact profile (11.4% Barrels/BBE, 45.5 HardHit%) in check with a 3.76 ERA nearly matching a 3.84 xERA.
He registered much better contact-neutral estimators, including a 2.95 SIERA and 2.85 xFIP. Reason to buy into them more than his xERA and actual results might be that he allowed only four barrels (7.3%) with a 40% hard-hit rate in five regular season September starts.
Also, from March through June, Williams averaged 96.8 mph on his fastball with a 20 K-BB%. From July through the end of the season, he boasted a 98.3 mph fastball with a 31.3 K-BB%. He averaged 99.5 mph and 99.1 mph in his two starts against the White Sox in the ALDS.
Williams has been such an absolute beast that even if I include his early season numbers, while weighing the late season numbers a little bit more, I still have him a little better than three and a quarter runs per nine right now.
If he’s going to continue to average 99 mph, he’s even better than that.
Williams threw his fastball 22.1% of the time through June, but then 34.4% over his last 14 starts and 39% in his first ALDS start, pulling back to 26 the second time around when the White Sox were looking for it. Instead, he just dominated them with a 16.9 SwStr% on sweepers and curves.
Over those last 13 regular season starts, Williams boasted a 3.34 Bot ERA with every offering at a 55 grade or better.
He also produced a 114 Pitching+ with all pitches at a 100 or better Pitching+, but only a dominant sweeper (131 P+) above 110.
Williams didn’t really differentiate his pitch usage much by platoon split this season. A few more sweepers for RHBs, a few more fastballs and curveballs for LHBs.
The fastball was so good that he generated a reverse split, though, with LHBs owning a .276 wOBA and .289 xwOBA and RHBs a .320 wOBA and .319 xwOBA.
However, post-break, those last 13 starts, LHBs had just a .265 wOBA against him and RHBs .296.
Williams came on so strong in the second half that it’s nearly impossible to find a weakness right now.
All that said, the Rays present a different and potentially more difficult matchup for Williams than the more strikeout-prone White Sox, even though they faced him more often and occasionally gave him problems this year.
Williams did have one of his best first-half starts against the Rays, striking out nine of 29 batters over 7.2 shutout innings without a walk, but as a team, the Rays struck out just 19.1% of the time against RHP. Thursday’s projected lineup… well, let’s talk about that.
The Rays faced Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler in the ALDS before three straight left-handed starters going into this game.
Their lineup was identical in both games and exactly what BARTOLO projects for Thursday.
However, neither Cole nor Schlittler had pronounced reverse splits. RHBs did have a 10-point higher wOBA against Cole, but six-point lower xwOBA.
This is all just to suggest that Cash’s lineup may not be what we think it will be, considering how analytically proactive the Rays are, always working to put their players in the best situations to succeed.
Working with what we do have, BARTOLO’s projected lineup averaged a 111 wRC+ on the road, 120 wRC+ (.169 ISO) vs RHP, but just 49 wRC+ this postseason so far, though that’s just four games.
This projected lineup also averaged just a 17.6 K% vs RHP this season with its highest strikeout rate (Taylor Walls 25.9%) in the nine spot.
The lineup Williams faced in April did not have Hicks (144 wRC+, 8.7 K% vs RHP), Victor Mesa Jr. (122, 22.4%) or Jonny DeLuca (114, 19.5%) in it, but did contain Jake Fraley, Cedric Mullins and Hunter Feduccia.
Still, only Junior Caminero, one of the best fastball hitters in the league, has a positive run value matchup against Williams’s fastball, while Yandy Diaz has hit sliders and curveballs well. If any two batters are going to give Williams trouble, it’s most likely to be those two, even if we know anything can happen in a single postseason game.
We did mention that the Rays are one of two offenses that have been worse than the Guardians against sliders this postseason, as their four-game sample has them as the worst offense against sinkers and sliders, but operating near break-even against fastballs.
Still, the message is probably just don’t throw Caminero hittable fastballs or Yandy anything bendy in the zone.
Williams was difficult to run on (3 Net Bases Prevented), and runners only attempted on 1.9% of 1,018 opportunities, and Bailey (5 CSAA) was one of the best at throwing them out, nailing 31% on an expected 22%. Hedges (-4 CSAA) was one of the worst in the league, catching only 6% against an expected 16%. He threw out just two runners all season.
If Hedges were somehow to be penciled into the lineup, Chandler Simpson's 3 Runs via Stolen Bases was one of the top 15 marks in the league. Taylor Walls was a sneaky 2 Runs via Stolen Bases, but you’d also be betting on him to reach base vs Williams. Walls (86 wRC+) is the only below-average bat against RHP in the projected lineup.
On a team basis, the Guardians accumulated 8 Runs Prevented and 12 OAA (13th), but Thursday’s projected lineup sits at 19 FRV on the season, led by a strong unit up the middle in Brayan Rocchio (10), Steven Kwan (7) and Patrick Bailey (6), though Kwan was more of a left-fielder than a center-fielder, where he’s often played this postseason.
If Jo Adell stays off the field defensively, the unit improves by 8 FRV.
The Cleveland bullpen is BARTOLO’s 3rd-ranked unit at a 3.74 wFIP. They’ve been heavily used, but extremely effective this postseason, posting a 2.44 FIP (2nd), 2.73 xFIP (1st) and 2.44 SIERA (1st).
The good news (for them) is that they did not use any of their highest-leverage relievers on Tuesday, giving the pen a much-needed break with Shawn Armstrong (20 pitches) and Slade Cecconi (16) taking the bulk of the work once Parker Messick exited.
Rays vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
I rate Williams a bit more than one-third of a run better than Jax, though the key is that the former’s workload may be twice as large in this game and he's potentially better than that throwing 100 mph.
These are also the two best postseason bullpens, averaging estimators around two and a half, both seemingly rested now too.
We also have two very good defenses with the Rays being potentially 18 FRV better, moving into elite territory.
It's most difficult to compare these teams offensively. The Rays are the much better offense against RHP and a strong road team, but they haven’t really hit much at all this postseason, albeit in such a small sample, and there are some questions that need to be answered about lineup construction against the reverse split.
The Guardians have a small home-field edge and project for just three more BRR (Base Running Runs) than the Rays.
I’m aligned with the market on the game moneylines. Only Novig (CLE -123) would have anything close to what I’d consider a lean, but still not actionable above -120. I wouldn’t hate a Cleveland series bet here and then coming back on the Rays if the Guardians win, but let’s not make this too complicated.
However, before discussing the total, let’s get to the environment, which I’ve purposely held off on until last.
Progressive Field plays close to neutral, just 2% below average as a run environment. In terms of power, it’s also about neutral (2% above average) for left-handed home runs, but absolutely smothers right-handed power with home runs 17% average for batters from that side of the plate. That certainly hurts the Rays (Caminero and Diaz) more than the Guardians.
The game was moved up four hours, but game-time weather appears to be near perfect in the mid-to-upper 60s with a light 5 mph wind blowing mostly across the field, right to left and slightly out towards the left-field pole.
These conditions, which could change by game time, typically produce conditions between 1.8% to 3% below average. That’s as much as 5% run suppression when we count the park effects.
However, scheduled umpire Bill Miller might be the most pitcher-friendly umpire in the league, lowering scoring another 3% on average. He only increases strikeouts around 1% though, if you're wondering.
Adding Miller to our already established environmental mix potentially drops us 8% in total. With two strong pitchers, one a potential Cy Young finalist, the two best postseason bullpens and a pair of strong defenses on the field, this should be a low-scoring game, especially with the park taking something out of Tampa Bay’s right-handed power.
This is an extremely low total, but in a low-scoring, close game, you can potentially see rested, high-leverage arms the entirety of the way after quality starting pitchers leave, and you can get even money or even better on Novig as of this writing.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-105, 0.5u | Bet to -115)
