The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 22, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Yankees are favored by -152 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +126 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Yankees Prediction
- Rays vs Yankees Pick: Gerrit Cole to Record a Win +155 (bet365, Play to +150)
My Rays vs Yankees best bet is Cole to record a win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Yankees Odds, Run Line
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +135 | 8.5 -105o / -122u | +126 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -162 | 8.5 -105o / -122u | -152 |
- Rays vs Yankees moneyline: Rays +126, Yankees -152
- Rays vs Yankees over/under: 8.5 runs
- Rays vs Yankees spread: Yankees -1.5
Rays vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| RHP Ian Martinez (TB) | Stat | RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | First Start of Season |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | N/A |
| 1.51 / 3.86 | ERA / xERA | N/A |
| 3.25 / 4.23 | FIP / xFIP | N/A |
| 11.1% | K-BB% | N/A |
| 40.7% | GB% | N/A |
| .255 | BABIP | N/A |
| 100 | Stuff+ | N/A |
| 106 | Location+ | N/A |
Rays vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Tampa Holds Sneaky Value
Friday's matchup is one of the most intriguing games of the season, with Gerrit Cole set to make his first start since Game 5 of the 2025 World Series against a scorching-hot Rays side that has surged to a 4.5 game lead atop the AL East.
Yankee Ace Cam Schlittler quipped that the Blue Jays are "a team that's gonna BABIP the s— out of you. Some unlucky stuff, but can't walk the bottom of the order," after Wednesday's start, a comment that might have been more suited to save for this series.
The Rays rank seventh in baseball with a wRC+ of 105 and hold the third highest BABIP in the league despite also holding the third highest soft contact rate.
While Tampa does not make much hard contact, it holds the lowest strikeout rate in the league and can create some chaos with speed on the basepaths, particularly leadoff man Chandler Simpson, who has been a treat to watch this season.
Still, the Rays hold the second lowest xSLG in the league and fifth lowest xwOBA, and do appear likely to come down to earth in terms of run production moving forward.
The Rays' savvy front office has consistently done a good job of identifying pitchers capable of authoring better results at the MLB level, and to this point Nick Martinez has proven to be a really savvy pickup, as the veteran righty holds a 1.51 ERA throughout his first 53 and 2/3 innings with the team.
Martinez does appear to be legitimately improved this season, but his 4.23 xFIP and .255 BABIP do suggest he's due for some meaningful regression, which is no surprise given his work over the previous two seasons. He's stranded 91.1% of baserunners, despite actually holding a worse xFIP with runners in scoring position.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: The Ace Returns
If Cole is able to return to his prior level of dominance, New York's starting rotation could prove to be an absolute force this season. Yankees starters have pitched to an ERA 3.22 this season and hold the second best xFIP and the sixth highest strikeout minus walk rate.
Cole and the Yankees organization seem to have full faith that he is ready to make his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery. In his last rehab start on May 16th, Cole threw 84 pitches, topped out at 99.6, and allowed one earned run across 5 and 1/3 innings while striking out six.
In each of his five seasons of work with the Yankees Cole has finished with an ERA of 3.50 or lower. He's obviously a legitimate ace when at his best, but there is certainly a little added volatility in betting on his initial string of starts after a lengthy layoff.
The Yankees have hit to a wRC+ of 113 versus right-handed pitching this season and own the third-highest hard-hit rate in MLB. They hold the highest walk-rate in MLB, and have plenty of power to make those walks hurt.
Rays vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
The Yankees are priced at -115 to win the first three innings (3-way line), which appears to be a solid look given the notable edge that Cole should offer over Martinez and that New York's offense still projects as the superior unit.
A price of +155 for Cole to record a win looks to hold even greater value, though obviously the Yankees won't push Cole too far in this matchup. However, Cole did throw 84 pitches in his final rehab start, and it doesn't seem all that unrealistic to believe Cole can get through five innings, and will likely leave in line for a win if that is the case.
Pick: Cole to Record a Win +155 (bet365, Play to +150)
