Thursday MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Reid Detmers and Corbin Burnes (July 14)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
- There's plenty of value to be found in Thursday's MLB props market and our analyst is targeting two pitchers.
- That includes a rookie Angels hurler who threw a no-hitter earlier this season and the defending NL Cy Young Award winner in a sterling pitching matchup in San Francisco.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of how to bet these two pitchers from Thursday night's MLB slate.
If you’re looking to add some extra value to your Thursday card, look no further than these two strikeout props. Both show +EV value based on our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Reid Detmers over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
|Astros @ Angels|
|First Pitch||8:07 p.m. ET|
Reid Detmers is not the type of pitcher I like to back. He’s had success at the Triple-A level but has yet to establish himself at the MLB level outside of a miraculous no-hitter back in early May.
However, I think Detmers shows upside today.
Detmers has only struck out about 7.2 batters per nine innings this season, but projections have him beating that number substantially by the season’s end. ZiPS projections have Detmers finishing the year with as high as 9.5 K/9.
And he might be tapping into that potential. Detmers has soared over this 3.5 mark in three straight starts, recording 19 strikeouts over his last 14 2/3 innings. That’s good for an 11.7 K/9, although in a small sample size.
Detmers’ underlying strikeout numbers have jumped during the stretch as well, with him recording at least a 27% CSW rate in each of those starts. And it hasn’t been against pushover offenses, as he’s faced the stacked Dodgers, the disciplined Royals and the red-hot Orioles.
While the Astros are arguably the most disciplined lineup in baseball, they look slightly vulnerable at the moment. Their strikeout rate against southpaws is up over 2% during the last month and their walk rate is down slightly.
Plus, Detmers has faired decently against Houston in the past. He only recorded three strikeouts in a start earlier this season, but that was on just 75 pitches. Detmers punched out six Astros in a start last season on 87 pitches. He recorded a 28% CSW rate in both outings.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Detmers for a whopping 5 Ks against the Astros Thursday night, giving us a 17% edge over the line DraftKings is offering.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Corbin Burnes over 7.5 Strikeouts (-135)
|Brewers @ Giants|
|First Pitch||9:45 p.m. ET|
This line is high. It’s always going to be a struggle backing the league’s best pitchers.
But I believe there are reasons to take Corbin Burnes’ strikeout total on Thursday.
First, the Giants are not themselves. The offense has been stagnant. With Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Crawford slumping, the Giants are barely over .500 with a bottom-10 wRC+ over the last month.
During that stretch, the Giants are striking out a whopping 24.2% of the time against RHPs, fifth in baseball.
Second, Burnes knows this lineup well. The defending NL Cy Young winner has recorded 20 punchouts over his last 12 2/3 innings against San Fran, picking up a 34.5% CSW rate in the process. Against current Giants hitters, Burnes has posted a 35.9% strikeout rate and a 38.6% Whiff rate.
In particular, Burnes has picked on:
- Joc Pederson: 5 Ks in 12 PAs, 44.4% Whiff
- Brandon Crawford: 5 Ks in 11 PAs, 45.5% Whiff
- Wilmer Flores: 3 Ks in 5 PAs, 42.9% Whiff
- Brandon Belt: 2 Ks in 11 PAs, 30.4% Whiff
- Lamonte Wade Jr: 2 Ks in 6 PAs, 27.3% Whiff
Plus, Burnes is a cutter-first pitcher. He throws the pitch about 56.6% of the time and it’s recorded a -20 Run Value, a .267 wOBA against and a 32.6% whiff rate.
Meanwhile, the Giants rank dead last in MLB in Weighted Cutter Runs Created, at -15.9.
Burnes is going to tear this lineup apart.
Finally, let’s remember who we are backing here. Burnes is the defending NL Cy Young winner who has cashed this number in six of his last eight starts. He’s struck out 67 batters in just 48 2/3 innings during the stretch, good for a 12.4 K/9.
The Action Labs Player Props tool projects Burnes for 8.6 strikeouts on Thursday night, which gives me enough value to back him at this line DraftKings is offering.
Pick: Over 7.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10