MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction for Tigers vs. Twins: Bettors Can’t Trust There Starting Pitchers (May 25)

MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction for Tigers vs. Twins: Bettors Can’t Trust There Starting Pitchers (May 25) article feature image

Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Bundy (Twins)

  • The Twins go for the sweep against the visiting Tigers this afternoon.
  • Minnesota is sending Dylan Bundy to the hill while the Tigers are throwing Rony Garcia onto the bump.
  • Jules Posner previews the AL Central clash and offers up his best bet.

Tigers vs. Twins Odds

Tigers Odds+165
Twins Odds-200
Time1:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Minnesota Twins look to sweep the visiting Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. The Twins have squeaked out two close victories so far in this series, as the Tigers try to find their way out of the season-long lull they've been experiencing thus far.

The Twins turn to Dylan Bundy, who is about as reliable as that Toyota Matrix I bought on the internet a few years back (not reliable!). Unfortunately for you, when Bundy does not perform to your expectations, you cannot file a complaint to the Better Business Bureau.

Speaking of complaints, the Detroit Tigers send Rony Garcia to the mound, who is an actual professional baseball pitcher by all accounts.

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Garcia Stands As An Unknown For Detroit

In the Tigers' defense, they are 5-5 over their last 10 games. That does not hide the fact that they are 5-15 on the road in 2022, though.

This season was supposed to be a year of progress for the Tigers. Instead, it's been a nightmare marred by injuries and underperformance — which sounds like a regular Tigers season to me.

There isn't much data available on Garcia. However, what little information is available shows he has a career 7.53 road ERA and a 8.26 road FIP over 14 1/3 innings.

He's also flanked by a bullpen that has been considerably deflated by injuries. Once a top unit, the Tigers' pen has sunk to a below-average unit. Over the past few weeks, they're in the bottom half of the league in FIP and barely in the top half of the league in ERA.

The Tigers' offense — which is substantially less injured than its pitching staff — is still a bottom-third unit against RHP on the road over the past couple of weeks. However, they are facing Bundy, who gave many false hope after a strong start to his season.

How Will Bundy Pitch For Minnesota?

Bundy has been weird this season. His first three starts of the year made it seem like he's turned a new leaf and found something that works for him. Then he got pounded in his next two starts. Context set in and the data revealed that the three offenses he faced were not as good as advertised.

The Tigers' offense is bad, but Bundy has not surrendered a run at home over two starts. He also has a 2.21 FIP at home, but this is his first home start since April 23rd, and he's due for regression.

The Twins' offense is still a solid bunch that has an above-average wRC+ at home against RHP over the past couple of weeks.

With the Tigers' thin pitching corps, the Twins should be able to mount some offense.

Tigers-Twins Pick

While the Tigers' offense is not in top form, the over is set at 7.5 in this matchup, as of Wednesday morning. That's a total that the Twins could be able to carry on their own. However, with Bundy being due for regression, this is a good opportunity for the Tigers to contribute.

It's really hard to trust Bundy to secure the victory, and the moneyline and runline don't seem like the best plays here.

Pick: Over 7.5

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