The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays on October 7, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Yankees picks: Yankees F5 ML
My Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet is on New York to win the 1st Half of the game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Bieber (TOR) | Stat | LHP Carlos Rodón (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.57 / 4.58 | ERA /xERA | 3.09 / 3.31 |
| 4.47 / 3.35 | FIP / xFIP | 3.78 / 3.89 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 18.9% | K-BB% | 16.5% |
| 48.2% | GB% | 43.5% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 106 | Location+ | 96 |
Kenny Ducey’s Blue Jays vs Yankees Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Blue Jays are doing a lot of mashing and reminding us why this team was the most dangerous in baseball for pockets of time. They've struck out in just 8.6% of plate appearances through two games, which came against some talented strikeout pitchers like Luis Gil, Max Fried and Will Warren.
This is a team which has proven it can swing the bats with low strikeout and walk rates, and it finished the second half hitting .275 with a .185 Isolated Power to come home with the best wRC+ in the game. The Jays also rank fourth in wRC+ to lefties and fifth against righties, so there's not a platoon advantage to be found here.
Shane Bieber will be the man on the mound for Toronto, and he'll be making his first postseason start since the 2022 ALDS, where he held the Yankees to two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings with seven punchouts in a Game 2 win. He may have started off his postseason career on a sour note when he was shellacked by the Yankees in the 2020 AL wild-card series, but he's pitched effectively in two playoff starts since.
This season's been an interesting one as Bieber looks to regain his prior form. He pitched to a 2.04 ERA in three Triple-A starts prior to elevating to the big-league team where he started five games, recording a 3.57 ERA. The strikeouts came thick and fast at the beginning of his abbreviated season, but he finished with a 23.3% punchout rate and favored groundouts more than anything. Toronto's infield ranked just 13th in Outs Above Average this year and Bieber's expected batting average was a poor .270, so with that there may be some regression ready to set in.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Well, if there was anything good that came from Will Warren throwing away Game 2 on Sunday it's that the Yankees' bullpen received some much-needed rest. Luke Weaver threw just one pitch as Warren eventually recorded all but one of the remaining 15 outs behind Fried, and that means Aaron Boone can have as quick a hook on Tuesday as he'd like with Carlos Rodon.
In Rodon, the Yankees have essentially a strikeout-or-bust lefty who's going to pitch to plenty of fly balls and nibble his way around the zone at the expense of some walks. Toronto's strikeout rate is around a point higher versus lefties, and its swing rate remains one of the highest in baseball. If the Jays continue their aggressive approach, it could mean good things for Rodon, whose whiff rate is among the best in the game.
Rodon's two starts against Toronto didn't go exactly according to plan, however, as he surrendered six runs (four earned) in 10 innings with eight strikeouts and eight walks. He did not allow a home run, crucially, and perhaps that's due to his elevated ground ball rate in 2025. The Blue Jays have been significantly worse against ground-ballers while the Yankees have ranked third in OPS to these types.
That's a very important note as we get set for this game, because the Yankees' offense has really struggled this postseason. They're running a dastardly 27.6% strikeout rate, but hitting a fair .244, so against a pitcher who's yet to prove his strikeout ability this season perhaps there's some reprieve.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Blue Jays used seven of their 10 available relievers on Sunday while the Yankees' stable rested, and with Bieber's outlook uncertain, that could play a big role in deciding this one. On the bright side, they'll have plenty of lefties at their disposal, but I'm not very sold on Bieber dominating in this game without a hefty sample size of success to look at.
He's giving up plenty of expected hits — and the Yankees have still piled up hits despite low scoring outputs — so together with a declining strikeout rate I anticipate New York will hit the ball here.
It's tougher to say that the Blue Jays won't hit again, but I do think you have a good matchup with Rodon against this aggressive team for two times through the order before this bullpen — which did perform well to close out the wild-card series, takes over.
Rodon has had an up-and-down postseason career, but he's always managed to rack up strikeouts which should finally slow Toronto's menacing order just a bit.
Pick: Yankees First Five Innings ML (-145) | Play to -152
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like the Yanks to take the lead in 1st Half.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't see value in run line bets.
Over/Under
I'm also not betting on game total runs.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Betting Trends
