The San Diego Padres host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 10, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Blue Jays are favored by -117 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are -103 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Padres Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Padres Pick: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Hits (+185, bet365)
My Blue Jays vs Padres best bet is on Clement to record 2+ hits. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Padres Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -190 | 8.5 -106o / -113u | -103 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +160 | 8.5 -106o / -113u | -117 |
- Blue Jays vs Padres moneyline: Blue Jays -103, Padres -117
- Blue Jays vs Padres over/under: 8.5 (-106o / -113u)
- Blue Jays vs Padres spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+160), Padres +1.5 (-190)
Blue Jays vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Shane Bieber | Stat | JP Sears |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| -0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 9 / 13.41 | ERA / xERA | 4.70 / 5.91 |
| 9.34 / 5.81 | FIP / xFIP | 6.05 / 4.65 |
| 3.1 | K-BB% | 10.4 |
| 31.3 | GB% | 37.8 |
| .333 | BABIP | .238 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 98 | Location+ | 98 |
Blue Jays vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement for 1.57 hits in tonight's matchup against the Padres, giving us a solid 11.5% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 1.5 hits, which is good enough to tag the Over with a B grade in our system.
Blue Jays vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
While a quick glance at the game log shows Clement has cleared this 1.5-hit threshold only three times in his last 10 games, that short-term slump is exactly why the market is giving us a discount. Betting a multi-hit prop on a guy in a minor funk can feel uncomfortable, but raw hit-rates over a tiny 10-game window obscure the exact metrics that make Clement a premium target.
Hitting .297 on the year, Clement possesses a rare profile in modern baseball because he puts the ball in play at an elite rate and almost never strikes out. When you rarely swing and miss, you drastically reduce the variance of an 0-for-4 night.
Tonight, he faces a San Diego pitching staff where putting the ball in play forcefully is paramount to finding holes. Because Clement maximizes his contact per plate appearance, he has a much higher floor than high-strikeout power hitters.
With his contact skills, if he gets four or five looks at the plate tonight, the math heavily favors him finding grass twice and locking in a profitable spot for us.
Pick: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Hits (+185, bet365)
