The Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays on October 16, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Mariners picks: Over 7.5 (-115, bet365)
My Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Max Scherzer (TOR) | Stat | RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 11-8 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 5.19 / 4.78 | ERA /xERA | 3.54 / 4.09 |
| 4.99 / 4.55 | FIP / xFIP | 3.88 / 4.09 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 3.6 | K-BB% | 3.5 |
| 27.1 | GB% | 41.3 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 108 | Location+ | 106 |
Sean Paul’s Blue Jays vs Mariners Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Max Scherzer could be in the final outing of his Hall of Fame career.
He was left off the Blue Jays' ALDS roster for a good reason. He posted a 7.55 ERA with a 1.68 WHIP across his final seven regular-season outings.
His final two outings were likely rock bottom. In a loss to the Red Sox, Scherzer surrendered 10 hits and four runs across five innings. Before that, the Royals had shellacked him for seven runs in less than an inning.
Scherzer looks worn out, so Toronto will need to rely on its bullpen and hope the offense explodes again.
Scherzer is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who no longer has the wipeout stuff he once had. There's no shame in that. He's 41 years old, and most pitchers that age are long gone from the sport. But he has no reason to start a playoff game in 2025.
That offensive explosion was much different than what the Blue Jays showed at home in the first two games. Of course, it's no coincidence that Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who went 0-7 in Toronto, went 3-for-3 with a homer in Game 3. The same applies to Alejandro Kirk, who went deep in game 3.
A lot of what the Blue Jays' offense can accomplish centers around that pair.
Toronto has the perfect plate approach for this matchup. If the Blue Jays face a pitcher who can lose the zone and pitches to contact, they can really make the opponent pay.
I think the first two games of the ALCS were the outlier. The Jays dominated offensively all year, and it carried into the ALCS. But the Mariners just found a way to dominate with Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert in the first two games.
With the stars hitting again, the Blue Jays should have another strong offensive game.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Mariners will give Luis Castillo the ball in the most pivotal game of this series to date.
A win and the Mariners can still clinch at home — a loss and the Jays regain the advantage.
Castillo isn't what he was during his prime, but he is still largely effective. He posted a 3.54 ERA with a 4.09 xERA and a 3.88 FIP across 180 2/3 innings. His stuff has noticeably fallen off a cliff — he throws around 94-to-96 MPH now instead of the 95-to-99 MPH he threw in his prime.
He was also a bit lucky to have an ERA below four. Castillo ranked below the 25th percentile among qualified starters in average exit velocity allowed, hard-hit rate allowed, and barrel rate allowed. As a pitcher who doesn't punch out a lot of hitters, Castillo could find himself in trouble if those hard-batted balls find grass.
In Game 3, the Jays hammered five long balls. Plus, Castillo allowed 1.15 HR/9 during the regular season on a ton of hard contact. He could be in real trouble against this dangerous Blue Jays lineup that sleepwalked through the first two games of this series and caught fire in game 3.
The Mariners' lineup is no slouch, either. They led the sport in wRC+ in September and hit 43 home runs. Just the thought of facing a washed-up Scherzer, who surrendered 2.10 HR/9 this year, should have this elite lineup salivating.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
The total is low here.
The over hit in two of the first three games. Although hitting typically goes to die in Seattle, these offenses are elite, and both pitchers are pretty mediocre.
I'd be surprised if there aren't nine runs scored here.
Scherzer and Castillo will have to provide some length, although the leash on Scherzer is probably a bit tighter.
Either way, I like the Over.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115, bet365)
Blue Jays vs Mariners Betting Trends
