We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
I'm 36-24 betting Triple-A baseball this season, good for +27.93 units of profit!
Toledo Mud Hens @ Rochester Red Wings
Tuesday, 6:45 PM ET
Toledo lost five in a row to finish the week against St Paul last week, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see the Mud Hens turn around and play spoiler here.
Keep an eye on Gleyber Torres's status, if he hits the IL for the Tigers there’s a good chance Toledo loses one of their key players to a call up and depending on who it is that changes things.
What we do know is Rochester will be huge favorites in just about every game this week but the Red Wings don’t always have the pitching to warrant that.
I like Rochester to win on Tuesday night (more on that in a minute) but I think Rochester having early success this week might see these lines get out of control and create a nice spot to come back with Toledo later in the week.
Rochester is -160 on Tuesday so not a ton of value but this is easily the best spot for the Red Wings this week.
Rochester will have Jackson Kent on the mound (probably their best starter right now) and Abilemec Ortiz is back in the lineup after missing some time last week.
All things considered I’ve got Rochester closer to -200 which is where I expect the lines to be later this week if Rochester wins the first couple.
The only problem is Rochester will start to run out of pitching later this week and there will probably be a spot where Toledo has their best relievers still available that makes sense to take a shot with the Mud Hens at a big price.
Very interesting series, I like Rochester -160 on Tuesday night and I’m hoping the Red Wings win the first couple so I can find a spot to play Toledo later in the week.
Pick: Rochester ML
Sacramento River Cats @ Oklahoma City Comets
Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET
Absolutely monster series here that will likely decide the First Half winner in the PCL. Sacramento and Oklahoma City both chase Las Vegas as the Aviators come in at 40-27, a half game ahead of the River Cats who enter here 39-27.
Oklahoma City shot themselves in the foot toward the end of last week in Charlotte and now has the most work to do of the three at 38-30.
Las Vegas has a favorable matchup at home with Round Rock so the most likely outcome is these two teams beat each other up and Las Vegas does enough to take the top spot.
With that being said I like Sacramento in this matchup and if the River Cats can have a big week at Bricktown it could be enough for them to steal the first half (and we will probably make some money this week if that happens.
Sacramento will be underdogs in most games in Oklahoma City this week but the River Cats have such a pitching edge that I don’t think that should be the case.
Oklahoma City has one of the best lineups in Triple A but Sacramento has been one of the top offenses recently since the promotion of some of their better players from Double A Richmond.
If we look at these two offenses as comparable I think it’s fair to say Sacramento has a solid pitching advantage as, aside from River Ryan, the River Cats will have the better starter in every other game this week.
Here’s how I think the pitching goes this week for Sacramento. Tyler Mahle will make a rehab start for Sacramento on Tuesday and probably another one on Sunday.
It’s tough to tell how deep he will go but that doesn’t really matter as all of the best bullpen arms will be reserved for these two days. Sacramento was rained out at Sugar Land on Sunday so the River Cats can stack their best relievers behind Mahle to put themselves in the best position possible to win Tuesday’s series opener.
Wednesday should be Matt Wilkinson, Thursday is Carson Whisenhunt and Friday is Joe Whitman. What you have right there is three of the top five starting pitchers in all of Triple A baseball right now.
All three are capable of pitching deep and I fully expect each one to be allowed to go as deep as they can.
Saturday is likely Blade Tidwell who has been roughed up in May after being sent down but has been serviceable in three June starts so far.
This is such an elite pitching set up for Sacramento and the River Cats most likely need to go 5-1 or 6-0 this week to steal the 1st half so I think backing Sacramento until they lose (or all week long depending on how Las Vegas fares against Round Rock) makes a ton of sense here.
Pick: Sacramento ML
Nashville Sounds @ Memphis Redbirds
Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET
Pretty much the same exact setup in the International League. Rochester comes into the week a couple percentage points ahead of Memphis and has the more favorable matchup at home against Toledo (we will get to that in a minute).
Memphis gets a home series as well but has the much tougher opponent in Nashville who come into play two games back of Rochester and Memphis
Big news for the Brewers this week as they finally promoted prospect Cooper Pratt to the big leagues but that’s equally a tough blow to Nashville and their chances at winning in Memphis this week.
Pratt has been one of the best players for Nashville all season and this was already a top heavy Nashville lineup (Luis Lara, Pratt, Jett Williams) so taking Pratt out really stifles the Sounds attack. Nashville wasn’t as potent offensively when Luis Lara missed time earlier this year and that could be the case again this week.
Memphis had something similar happen last week when Blaze Jordan finally got the call but Memphis has a deeper lineup and replaced Jordan with one of the better players in all of Double A this season in Noah Mendlinger.
Memphis also recently got Victor Scott and Thomas Saggese back from injury which softens the blow of losing Jordan to the big leagues.
Memphis also has a deeper pitching staff and one of the best bullpens at the Triple A level this season. Nashville is a ridiculous 26-9 at home but just 15-19 on the road this season.
Keep an eye on the early part of this series, we could see a scenario where Nashville has nothing to play for over the weekend while Memphis needs a home win to win the league. I doubt the books will factor this into the number.
Pick: Memphis ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Rochester ML (vs Toledo, 6:45 PM ET)
- Sacramento ML (@ Oklahoma City, 8:05 PM ET)
- Memphis ML (vs Nashville, 8:05 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
