The Cleveland Guardians host the Washington Nationals on May 26, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Guardians are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Guardians Prediction
- Nationals vs Guardians Pick: Nationals F5 Moneyline
My Nationals vs Guardians best bet is on Washington to take the lead at half. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Guardians Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +114 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -134 |
- Nationals vs Guardians moneyline: Nationals +114, Guardians -134
- Nationals vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Nationals vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+164), Nationals +1.5 (-200)
Nationals vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| RHP Cade Cavalli (WAS) | Stat | LHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.86 / 4.09 | ERA / xERA | 3.05 / 3.73 |
| 3.16 / 3.85 | FIP / xFIP | 4.15 / 4.30 |
| 17.3% | K-BB% | 10.3% |
| 45.8% | GB% | 43.0% |
| .367 | BABIP | .277 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 94 | Location+ | 91 |
Nationals vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
Cade Cavalli has given us a bumpy ride this year. He started the year with a few terrible outings, and then went on a strong run before a couple of clunkers in May.
But Cavalli has been mostly very good lately. If we forgive his first four starts, here’s what he’s done in the last seven: 3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28.4% K%, 4.1% BB%, 0.7 HR/9. Those ratios are nothing special, but the K-BB% and home run suppression have been elite.
His best pitch is the curveball. It has a .239 xwOBA allowed with zero homers and a sick 19.7% SwStr%. His fastball has not been so great, and he doesn’t really have any of his other various options working very well.
What this does is create some reverse splits. He has struck out 27.5% of lefties with a 2.75 SIERA against them. Against righties? A 22% K% with a 3.72 SIERA. Most reverse splits are products of small samples. But in this case, they make some sense. He only throws the curveball 16% of the time to righties (30% to lefties). So he’s clearly not as confident in that pitching working against those right-handed sticks.
So there might be some angles on Guardians right-handed bats here. The problem is, there aren’t many of those to speak of. Their only regular right-handed bat when the Guardians face a righty is Rhys Hoskins. He’s hitting .227/.383/.413 against righties this year. The walk rate is interesting there, and that makes me okay with a Hoskins Over 0.5 H+R+RBI line.
But I do think we should take advantage of Cavalli's strong recent performance. He's given up a .367 BABIP this year. So there's been bad luck leading to the inflated ERA and WHIP. He's a good pitcher, and the fact that the Guardians can stack lefties against him doesn't seem to bother us with what he's doing splits-wise.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
It's Joey Cantillo on the other side. Let's talk about his pitch mix for a second.
- Four Seamer: 43% usage, 5.7% SwStr%, .376 xwOBA allowed
- Changeup: 29% usage, 23% SwStr%, .246 xwOBA allowed
- Curveball: 18% usage, 12.5% SwStr%, .223 xwOBA allowed
- Slider: 10% usage, 14.4% SwStr%, .339 xwOBA allowed
That is one horrible fastball. Righties and lefties both do well against it. I'm sure he'd love to just throw that pitch every time, but that's not how baseball works, and that's certainly not how changeups work. The evidence for that would be in the name "changeup". It requires a fastball to "change up".
But given how nasty that offspeed pitch is, he'll have some good outings. He has a nine-strikeout game in the books this year (4/8 vs. KC) and a non-awful 3.82 ERA on the season.
The one consistent thing is walks. He has a career 10.5% BB%, and it's 11.6% this year. He has walked 14 in his last five starts for a 13% BB%. And the strikeout rate is under 16% there. He's got the fourth-worst K-BB% in the league since April 28th. It seems like hitters are figuring out when the changeup is coming, letting it go by for a ball, and then punishing the rest of his stuff.
Nationals vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
It's always a little surprising to see the Nationals as a favorite on the road (… or at home frankly), but it's justified here. The Guardians offense is nothing special, and Cavalli seems to match up pretty well with them. Meanwhile, Cantillo has been one of the worst in the league this year
The bullpen advantage goes easily to the Guardians, though. So I'd be on the Nationals F5 line rather than the moneyline. There's a good chance the Nats bullpen blows this one after Cavalli's work is done.
Picks: Nationals F5 Moneyline / Cade Cavalli over 15.5 Outs / Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 H+R+RBI
