The New York Mets host the Washington Nationals on Thursday, June 12, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Mets turn to Kodai Senga as they try to sweep the rival Nationals in the Thursday series finale. The Nationals will be starting Michael Soroka, who fired six shutout innings in his last start against the Rangers.
Continue below to find my Nationals vs Mets prediction for Thursday afternoon.
My Nationals vs Mets Prediction
- Nationals vs Mets picks: Under 8.5 (-122 | Play to -130)
My Nationals vs Mets best bet is the game total under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Mets Odds, Line
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8 -115o / -105u | +185 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8 -115o / -105u | -225 |
Nationals vs Mets Projected Starters
| RHP Michael Soroka (WSH) | Stat | RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 4.86 / 2.99 | ERA /xERA | 1.59 / 3.31 |
| 4.10 / 3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29 / 4.10 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 18.3% | K-BB% | 12.8% |
| 50.9% | GB% | 46.1% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 106 | Location+ | 96 |
Tony Sartori’s Nationals vs Mets Preview
Why The Nationals Can Win: Sneaky Soroka
Analytically speaking, Michael Soroka is due for positive regression.
His underlying metrics are among the best in baseball, as the Nationals' right-hander ranks in the 82nd percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 92nd percentile in walk rate and 94th percentile in barrel rate.
Soroka also ranks in the top half of the league in expected batting average (xBA) and strikeout rate. These advanced metrics suggest that his 4.86 ERA is unlikely to last much longer.
Perhaps New York is the perfect opportunity for that positive regression to begin materializing. Through seven career starts against the Mets, Soroka is 4-1 with a 3.08 ERA.
However, run support may be hard to come by. Entering this matchup, Washington ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Why The Mets Can Win: Senga Leads Elite Staff
New York’s lineup is considerably stronger, which is likely why the total is set at 8.5 instead of 8 or 7.5. That said, Soroka has historically handled this team well.
Meanwhile, Kodai Senga takes the mound for the Mets, and one of the league’s best pitchers needs little introduction. Through 12 starts this season, Senga is 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
That stellar ERA currently leads the National League.
Like Soroka, Senga has also found success against today’s opponent. Through three career meetings with Washington, Senga owns a 2.65 ERA.
Not that he needs much help, but Senga is backed by an elite bullpen.
New York’s relief staff ranks second in ERA, first in fielding independent pitching (FIP), fifth in expected FIP (xFIP) and third in wins above replacement (WAR).
How To Make Nationals vs Mets Picks
The main threat to the under in this matchup is New York’s offense. However, as noted, Soroka has an excellent track record against the Mets.
Soroka is due for positive regression, while Senga and his bullpen are among the best in the league.
Furthermore, New York’s pitching staff likely will not need to exert much effort against Washington’s underwhelming offense.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122 | Play to -130)
Moneyline
I lean toward New York, but I don't want to oppose Soroka.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like New York to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting under 8.5.
