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MLB Odds & Picks for White Sox vs. Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman & Toronto Should Prevail

MLB Odds & Picks for White Sox vs. Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman & Toronto Should Prevail article feature image
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Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman

  • The Blue Jays are favored at home tonight against the White Sox.
  • It's a battle of aces as Toronto sends Kevin Gausman to the mound against Chicago's Lucas Giolito.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

White Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds

White Sox Odds +160
Blue Jays Odds -196
Over/Under 7.5
Time 7:07 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

While tonight’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays may look like one of the better pitching matchups of the year on paper, the offense will likely be the true deciding factor.

Despite both aces going for each team, the market will tell you just how much of a gap there is between these two teams. They are heading in opposite directions.

The White Sox enter this matchup as a  .500 club that has been playing that part recently as they’ve split their last 10 games. At the same time, the Blue Jays have broken out of late as they are winners of seven of their last 10 games, including each of their previous five games.

It’s safe to say that their confidence is sky-high coming into this one, and with their ace on the mound, they have to like their chances.

Gausman to Carve up Struggling Sox Lineup

Kevin Gausman has been pitching at a Cy Young level thus far for Toronto. He enters this start with a 2.25 ERA, but if that’s not low enough for you, he leads the majors with a 1.31 FIP. Since his departure from Baltimore, Gausman’s accession to the top of the league stems from the perfect combination of stuff and command.

He ranks in the top two percent of all qualified pitchers in both walk and chase rates. In turn, his strikeout rate sits in the top 20 percent of the league as well. For Gausman, it’s all about locating his fastball and then tunneling his nasty splitter off of it.

While he throws his fastball nearly 50 percent of the time, it’s all to set up the splitter, which he throws 37 percent of the time to hitters. Surprisingly, his fastball has been hit quite a bit as teams have hit .337 average off of it with an average exit velocity of 92 mph. However, his splitter has been untouchable. Opposing batters have hit just .140 off Gausman’s splitter, and it has an astronomical 44.4 percent whiff rate.

The White Sox entered the season as the odds-on favorite to win the AL Central; however, those aspirations seem to be dwindling by the day. They haven’t been able to find any consistent run production, and now they’ve just lost their better hitter in Tim Anderson.

Despite the massive loss of Anderson, this team has plenty of talent with the likes of Luis Robert and former AL MVP Jose Abreu. Unfortunately, neither of them have gotten hot enough to carry the like Anderson had been.

All the blame cannot be placed on the stars, as the entire lineup has had their share of struggles. In all, the White Sox are currently 26th in runs per game and are 23rd in team batting average. Their outlook against one of the game’s best is bleak.

Expect Jays to Keep Rolling at Home

Toronto was a very trendy World Series selection prior to the season. However, that talk had cooled as the Jays were scuffling offensively. That does not seem to be the case anymore, as they’ve won five straight and scored six or more runs in four of them.

They are back home for this one, where the Jays are 14-8 on the season. Their lineup will be tasked with White Sox ace Lucas Giolito, who may be due for some regression in this start. His numbers, on the surface, are very impressive as he boasts a 2.63 ERA and a strikeout rate that is among the top six percent of the league. However, the underlying numbers are a cause for concern.

Giolito may generate a lot of swings and misses, but when batters haven’t missed, the contact has been solid. As a result, Giolito is in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. That quality of contact has his expected ERA more than a full run higher than his actual ERA.

If those numbers come to fruition against the Jays bats, there could be fireworks at the Rogers Centre. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Danny Jansen all have average exit velocities above 91 mph and hard-hit rates above 44 percent. That puts over half of the Blue Jays lineup among the upper echelon of hitters in the league.

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White Sox-Blue Jays Pick

These two teams are heading in completely opposite directions. On top of that, the underlying metrics show that this stellar pitching matchup on paper is not all that it is cracked up to be.

Toronto should be able to get to Giolito and pile on throughout the game as Gausman shuts down a lowly White Sox lineup. Take the Jays to cover the spread.

Pick: Toronto -1.5 +120

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