Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Favorite in Matinee

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Favorite in Matinee article feature image

Kyle Rivas/Getty Images. Pictured: Myles Straw.

  • The Cleveland Guardians are a short favorite over the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of their doubleheader on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Jules Posner is backing the home team in this one with Shane Beiber on the mound.
  • Get his full White Sox vs. Guardians pick and preview below.

White Sox vs. Guardians Game 1 Odds

White Sox Odds+120
Guardians Odds-142
Time2:10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

It's as if the baseball gods do not want the world to see Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber square off against Chicago White Sox… veteran pitcher Dallas Keuchel.

After two postponements, it appears we will finally be getting this long-awaited matchup as Cleveland hopes to take this home series and cut into the Chicago's AL Central lead.

The White Sox come into Wednesday's doubleheader with a 6-3 record, having won all three of their series to start the season.

The Guardians bring a 4-5 record into the series after getting swept in their first home series by the Giants. That was the Guardians' first real challenge of the year, and they struggled to muster offense against the Giants' second, third and fourth starters.

Are White Sox a Mirage?

The White Sox are still without A.J. Pollock, Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada, but they've played steady baseball despite those subtractions.

However, the White Sox have been tough to read thus far. They're 6-3, but they've played the Tigers, Mariners, and Rays. These are all teams that are supposed to be good, but maybe they're not? It remains to be seen.

One thing that does stand out is that the White Sox offense is in the bottom third of MLB in team wRC+ and runs scored.

While the Mariners and Tigers seem to have taken steps forward on paper, they're still teams led by young talent still trying to find their footing in the majors. The Rays are one of the most injured teams in baseball, and they're particularly vulnerable right now. This all means the White Sox may be a little bit of a mirage.

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Time to Back Bieber?

The main focus of this game is Bieber. While much has been said about his reduced velocity and spin rate, he's still pitching well so far. Although Bieber looked slightly more vulnerable in his last start against the Reds, he still carries a 2.70 ERA and a 2.20 FIP into his first home start of the season.

Historically, Bieber is actually less effective at home, as his career ERA is almost a full run higher at home than it is on the road. However, his home/road career FIP are much closer and more indicative of his true performance.

Although the Guardians got carved up by lefties Carlos Rodon and Alex Wood this past weekend, the Guards still have a team 114 wRC+ against LHP this season. With Keuchel on the mound for the White Sox, this is actually quite a favorable match-up for Cleveland.

Additionally, the Guardians have been widely criticized for having weak offenses in the recent past. But the data shows that their one offensive competency is hitting left-handed pitching, particularly at home.

In 2021, they were perfectly league average. Now, with the emergence of Myles Straw, Steven Kwan and Owen Miller, the Guards might be able to improve upon that this season.

White Sox-Guardians Pick

A lot of people believe it's smart to fade Bieber because of the underlying metrics of his pitch characteristics. Bieber still hasn't pitched poorly enough to warrant that.

Until the data changes, it's still probably good to back Bieber and fade Chicago's underperforming offense as it heads back on the road in pretty unfavorable weather.

The Guardians moneyline is the play here up to the -140 range.

Pick: Guardians ML -142

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