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White Sox vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Play to Make on Shane Bieber (Saturday, August 20)

White Sox vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Play to Make on Shane Bieber (Saturday, August 20) article feature image
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Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Bieber.

White Sox vs. Guardians Odds

White Sox Odds +155
Guardians Odds -185
Over/Under 7.5
Time 6:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via . Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After claiming a 5-2 victory in the opener of a crucial three-game series, the Guardians now hold a 3.5-game lead atop the AL Central over the visiting White Sox.

Chicago looks to bounce back with a better offensive showing Saturday, after striking out 17 times Friday.

Doing so could prove a tall task however, as Shane Bieber – who has again been one of the AL’s better starters this season – takes the mound for the Guardians.

Johnny Cueto toes the rubber for Chicago and has been dominant in his own right. He’s pitched to an ERA of 2.78 this season, including a solid start in his last time out versus Houston, allowing just one earned run through 8 innings.

With a pitcher as strong as Cueto on the mound, a price of -185 looks pretty steep. Do the Guardians deserve to be laying this much?

Chicago White Sox

Cueto kept a powerful Astros offense at bay, allowing just a single earned run en route to victory.

Yet, Cueto did allow a ton of contact, including 11 hard-hit balls with just three strikeouts – and it certainly seemed Cueto ran with some favorable luck to allow just the single earned run.

That’s been consistent with much of Cueto’s play this season, as the 36-year-old’s xERA of 3.88 has now passed a full-run higher than his actual mark on the year.

He has allowed 26 hits over his last 22 innings, yet only six earned runs during that time.

And the numbers certainly support the idea that Cueto has not been as elite as his surface-level stats suggest, which is likely why Cleveland’s lined a heavy favorite in this spot.

Also factoring into the price is Chicago taking the field short the services of a number of key players: Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Leury Garcia will likely miss the contest again, as well as Tim Anderson, who has been sidelined since August 6th.

Cleveland Guardians

Bieber was dominated on July 24th by Chicago, allowing six earned runs over six innings. He’ll look to redeem himself with a better performance against the Sox Saturday at home.

Since that disastrous outing Bieber has been in tremendous form, pitching to an ERA of just 1.67 across 27 innings, with a solid WHIP of 0.888.

Bieber has walked just one of his last 77 batters, and has struck out 7.8 hitters per game over his last four starts. And it’s no surprise that combination has led to some strong results.

Offensively the Guardians continue to be surprisingly effective, posting a wRC+ of 106 and a strikeout rate of just 17.5% over the last month.

The Guardians feature night-and-day results against right-handed/left-handed pitching, and will be in their preferred split today against the righty Cueto.

Cleveland owns the ninth-best wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season (107), but the second-worst clip versus southpaws.

White Sox-Guardians Pick

With Chicago’s offense notably shorthanded, Bieber is well-positioned to shake off his dreadful start last time out versus the White Sox and lead his team to another important victory.

Cleveland’s bats have been steady of late, and could be a sneaky candidate to break through with a big day against Cueto.

We’ll likely see Bieber pitch far into this contest and watch his offense claim a lead off Cueto. I believe at +115 there’s backing Bieber to record a win in this contest.

Pick: Shane Bieber To Record a Win +115 (Play to +110)

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