MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for White Sox vs. Royals: Runs at a Premium in Battle Between Subpar Offenses (Thursday, May 19)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox.
- The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals run it back for their fifth and final time in the series on Thursday at 2:10 p.m. ET.
- The under has hit in 12 of Chicago's last 15 games and in 12 of Kansas City's last 18 home games.
- Will those under trends continue on Thursday, or is a reversal plausible given the mediocre pitching matchup on tap?
White Sox vs. Royals Odds
| White Sox Odds | -145 |
| Royals Odds | +125 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the fifth and final game of this AL Central intradivisional series as the Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox. The under has hit in each of the first three games in this series.
Will we get another low-scoring outing between these two teams, or can the bats pick It up this time around?
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox enter Thursday's contest amidst a flurry of low-scoring games. As of writing — Wednesday, May 17 — there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 12 of Chicago's last 15 games. Furthermore, the under has hit or pushed in 11 of the team's 17 games.
Right-handed starting pitcher Vince Velasquez is projected to take the mound for Chicago. The over/under is 3-3 in his starts this season.
I think we are getting an inflated number on the total. Velasquez was shelled in his last outing, when he allowed seven runs on eight hits through five innings pitched.
However, that was against one of the best offenses in the league in the New York Yankees — and the Royals are obviously nowhere near that level.
Speaking of poor offenses, Velasquez likely won't receive much help from the White Sox bats, who are are slated to go against right-hander Carlos Hernandez. Chicago ranks 24th in the league in batting average, 28th in wOBA, 25th in slugging percentage and 28th in OPS against right-handed pitching.
In 53 career plate appearances against Hernandez, this current White Sox roster possesses a mere .196 batting average, .283 SLG and .270 wOBA.
Kansas City Royals
Like the White Sox, the Kansas City Royals have seen plenty of low-scoring games this season. The under has hit or pushed in 19 of their 35 games, and the under has also hit in 12 of their 18 home games as of Wednesday.
As I mentioned earlier in this article, right-hander Carlos Hernandez is slated to take the mound for Kansas City. And like Velasquez, I believe we are getting an inflated total in this game due to Hernandez's last outing.
Hernandez got rocked in his last start, allowing nine runs and eight hits in four innings pitched. However, that was on the road in Coors Field — where runs are more abundant — against the Rockies, who possess a much better offense than the White Sox.
Prior to that start in Colorado, the under had hit in three of Hernandez's last four starts. Hernandez dominated the White Sox in his four appearances against them last season, earning a 3-0 record with a 2.60 ERA and 1.212 WHIP.
In the previous section, I hinted at Kansas City's offensive struggles. When facing right-handed pitchers this season, the Royals rank just 25th in the league in batting average, 26th in wOBA, 25th in SLG and 28th in OPS.
White Sox vs. Royals Pick
This is a matchup that has historically been low-scoring: There have been nine or fewer total runs scored in eight of their last 10 meetings. Given the recent trends for both teams, I like this streak of unders to continue.
While both of these starting pitchers are obviously not the best, they are going against two lineups that are awful against right-handed pitchers.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-105) | Play up to (-120)
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