White Sox vs Twins Odds, Prediction: The F5 Bet to Make

White Sox vs Twins Odds, Prediction: The F5 Bet to Make article feature image

Photo by David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Byron Buxton.

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Odds

Wednesday, April 24
7:40 p.m. ET
White Sox Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-120o / +100u
Twins Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-120o / +100u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The White Sox have lost five in a row and are struggling to find any offense to speak of. But after a narrow 6-5 loss to the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday, perhaps the bats are ready to wake up and come away with a long-awaited win on Wednesday at Target Field.

The starting pitching matchup might be the best one of the Wednesday MLB slate as Garrett Crochet faces Joe Ryan. Can Crochet get back on track after two consecutive rough starts, or will he be outdone by the tantalizing Ryan?

White Sox vs Twins odds have the Twins installed as -198 favorites on the moneyline with an over/under of 6.5, which is the lowest of the MLB Wednesday slate. For my White Sox vs Twins prediction, however, I'll be targeting a different market: the first five innings (F5) run line.

Let's dive into the Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, April 24.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox, who have won just three of their 23 games this season, enter this game in Minnesota with a 1-11 record on the road.

Their offense is very much to blame, falling victim to a shutout a stunning eight times, and with that it's no surprise to see their wRC+ (64) is dead last in baseball.

It's still a little early to read too much into wRC+, which weighs against the league average, but what we can say for certain is that this team has married a bevy of strikeouts (25.2%) with a serious lack of power (.098).

The scary part is that it's not even for lack of trying, given their fly-ball rate is seventh-highest in MLB — they're simply not hitting the ball hard enough, with an unsightly 33.2% hard-hit rate, which ranks last in MLB.

You can't even blame their home park for the issues, given it's been roughly average in terms of Park Factor for homers, and stepping into a similar park in Minnesota, it's unsurprising to see a continuation of their struggles.

Speaking of fly balls, that continues to be the name of the game for Garrett Crochet.

The left-hander made a fast start to his first season as a starting pitcher with three dominant showings, but he's now allowed a homer in three of his last four outings and surrendered three last time out in Philly.

Crochet's ability to get strikeouts at a high 32.7% rate will mitigate some of the risk brought on by all the fly balls and hard contact, as will his low 5.8% walk rate. But even then, the control issues that have plagued him in the past have reared their head with five free passes over his last two starts (9 2/3 innings).

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Minnesota Twins

The Twins haven't been the best offensive team in the book, either. They're sitting below average for the year thanks to poor strikeout and walk rates and currently rank 13th in Isolated Power.

They've sorely missed Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa's production in this lineup, particularly against lefties, with a wRC+ of just 80.

In a bit of good news, though, Minnesota has ranked just outside the top 10 in fly-ball rate, posting an excellent .798 OPS against fly-ball pitchers this season in 284 plate appearances.

Someone like Crochet is exactly who the Twins want to see at the moment, even if they're currently working through some issues in the strikeout department. It's worth noting that their K-rate is a lower 23.9% in this split, and against lefties they've managed to hit the fourth-most fly balls on average.

On the hill, Joe Ryan has actually taken a huge step forward in his batted ball profile, pitching to many more ground balls and fewer strikeouts.

Though he wouldn't be considered a ground-baller given he's still slightly below the league average, he's induced a ridiculous number of popups, which falls in line with his very friendly 32.2% hard-hit rate, coming in four points lower than average.

He's married those contact numbers with an excellent 32.3% strikeout rate and he continues to be one of the best in baseball at limiting walks, something that stands out with the volume of hitters he's faced.

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White Sox vs Twins

Betting Pick & Prediction

It's not exactly a novel concept to fade the White Sox, but the matchup is damning for Chicago.

Ryan should be able to look even sharper against a team that has made a habit of hitting weak fly balls, and on the other side of the coin, Crochet should be in trouble given his recent issues with homers and walks against a team that puts the ball in the air a ton against left-handers and posts much betters numbers against fly-ball pitchers.

I don't see a way in for the White Sox when we look at this matchup between Crochet and Ryan, and will lay the half-run with Minnesota over the first five innings (F5) up to -125.

Pick: Twins First Five Innings -0.5 (-115)

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