Thousands of players have passed through MLB and other professional baseball leagues over the past century, but a very small percentage have simultaneously been both prolific hitters and pitchers like Shohei Ohtani.
Winning both an MVP and a Cy Young Award in the same season is a rare feat, but it's been done, most recently in 2014 when Los Angeles Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw accomplished the feat. Will Ohtani be next?
To trade on this market, sign up at Kalshi and make your prediction known.
If you're new to Kalshi, you can use any of our links to claim our exclusive sign-up offer: Trade $10, Get $10! This welcome bonus can be used to be on a variety of different prediction markets ranging from sports to politics!
Shohei Ohtani Cy Young and MVP Winner: Kalshi Live Odds
At the moment, Kalshi traders are fairly convinced Ohtani won't bring home both awards. On the other hand, the number of traders buying the yes has nearly doubled since the market first opened on April 15th.
With trade volume currently at ~$38,000, this is a thin market. The month of May in particular has been volatile, with "Yes" contract odds rapidly moving between 11% and 19%.
Read on for a full breakdown of Ohtani's chance to win both the NL MVP and NL Cy Young Award.
Will Shohei Ohtani Win Both the NL MVP and the NL Cy Young Award?
What makes the "Shohei Ohtani: Cy Young and MVP Winner" market so interesting is the legitimate possibility of a "Yes" outcome. Ultimately, it will likely come down to whether Ohtani can win the NL Cy Young, an award he's never actually won.
The NL MVP side of the ledger, while in no way a guarantee, feels a lot safer. Ohtani has won this award four times in the past five seasons, including in each of the past three seasons. Some traders may be hesitant to buy the yes given Ohtani's slow start to the season, but that hasn't meant much historically.
In past MVP-winning seasons, Ohtani has routinely been somewhat cold at the plate in April and/or May (batting .246 with just six home runs and an .824 OPS as of May 4th) before turning it on from June onward.
Ohtani's likelihood of winning the NL Cy Young will almost certainly be tied to how the Dodgers decide to handle his workload, which in turn will rely on how healthy he can stay. He underwent Tommy John surgery back in October 2018, which wasn't concerning until he tore his UCL in September 2023.
As a result, he didn't pitch at all in 2024 and took the mound in a very limited capacity in 2025. On the bright side, 2026 is the first season he's entered fully healthy as a two-way player since 2023, and his 0.60 ERA through his first five starts is certainly reason for optimism.
As mentioned before, the same player winning both the MVP and Cy Young Award in the same season is incredibly rare, with only 11 pitchers having done so since the Cy Young was first created in 1956. In Ohtani's case, it helps to be an elite hitter, as past pitchers who pulled this off had to do so by putting together an other-worldly pitching campaign (since they weren't regular hitters).
As such, Ohtani could very feasibly win both awards through elite pitching, but with just borderline elite batting. While many factors would have to break right for this market to resolve to "Yes", there are a lot of good reasons to buy "Yes" contracts at the current price (~21 cents each).
When Will This Kalshi Market Conclude?
Here are the market rules according to Kalshi:
- If Shohei Ohtani wins National League Cy Young and National League MVP in the Pro Baseball 2026 season, the market resolves to "Yes".
- The market is projected to close and payout on December 1st, 2026. The outcome will be verified by the Governing League.
