Yankees vs Angels Odds, Pick, Prediction | MLB Expert Targets the Over
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Yankees vs. Angels Odds
The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels are both in the midst of massive slumps, making this three-game series at Angel Stadium a tantalizing one.
After the two teams lost heartbreakers on Sunday, what can we expect with two struggling starting pitchers — Luis Severino and Griffin Canning — on the hill?
Let's break it all down my Yankees vs Angels betting preview, which includes a pick on the total.
The first part of the equation here is Luis Severino. The right-hander is going through it right now, allowing 11 home runs in nine starts to register a 7.38 ERA. Severino is still just 29 and was pretty good after returning from injury in 2022, so there's some hope that he can turn things around.
With that said, there are some real concerns here. Severino's ground ball rate is down to 39.6% this season while his fly ball rate and line drive rate are well above average. When he was at his best, the eight-year veteran was rolling up grounders and striking out plenty of hitters.
He's not only pitched to much worse contact but his strikeout rate is a career-worst 17.8% and his whiff rate is in the bottom 11% of the league.
As for this offense, things are turning around. In the last 10 games, the Yankees own a 99 wRC+ with a very strong 18.9% strikeout rate and a walk rate at 9%. This team is taking a much better approach, and even with the additional contact, the Yankees' power has not dissipated, as evidenced by their .178 Isolated Power over that span.
New York remains in the top five in home run-to-fly ball ratio and has put the ball in the air plenty of late.
Numbers on the Yankees' recent offensive success represent the last thing that Griffin Canning wants to hear. The Angels righty has struggled a ton in his own right, allowing 15 homers in 14 starts and posting an ugly 46.5% hard-hit rate. In doing so, he joins Severino in the bottom 10% of the league in that category.
He's been saved by some swings and misses and has posted a roughly average strikeout rate at 22.9%, but as discussed above this may not be the best matchup for him.
It makes perfect sense that Canning would struggle, given he has a fly ball rate that's almost seven points higher than the league average at 30%. Coupling quality contact with a lot of balls coming back in the air is a surefire way to allow home runs and get yourself into a boatload of trouble.
The good news here is that the Angels' offense is as strong as ever. They've posted a 120 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and in that time they have a beefy 20% home run-to-fly ball ratio that ranks second in the bigs.
They remain in the top five of that category for the entire season, though strikeouts have been a big issue for them.
Yankees vs. Angels Betting Pick
On Monday, we'll see two offenses packed with home run upside playing in a stadium ranked fourth in park factor for home runs.
Both pitchers have allowed their fair share of home runs. While the Angels have a clear weakness in the strikeout department, they won't have to worry much considering Severino has struggled to generate swings and misses and enters at an all-time low in strikeout rate.
Canning has benefited from some timely strikeouts to mask his quality-of-contact issues, but the Yankees have been incredibly disciplined at the plate in recent weeks.
With that, I think the conditions for offense here are very strong. I'll play this total up to 9.5 runs.
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