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Yankees vs. Astros MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Keep Eye on Yordan Alvarez’s Status (Thursday, June 30)

Yankees vs. Astros MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Keep Eye on Yordan Alvarez’s Status (Thursday, June 30) article feature image
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Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez (Astros)

  • The Yankees and Astros square off in a clash between two teams with the best records and run differentials in the American League.
  • New York has issues with the backend of its bullpen while Houston may be without star Yordan Alvarez.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and offers up his best value bet.

Yankees vs. Astros Odds

Yankees Odds -135
Astros Odds +115
Over/Under 7.5 (+105/-125)
Time 6:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Yankees and Astros have the two best records and best run differentials in the American League.

Each team has also won seven of their last 10 games. The Yankees have won four games in a row while the Astros have won their last two games.

These teams seem headed on a path that inevitably ends with them meeting for an ultimate showdown in the American League Championship Series. But on Thursday night, they’ll play one game in Houston and go their separate ways.

Who will get the job done in this winner-take-all (for now) affair?

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Will Backend of Yankees’ Bullpen Hold Up?

The Yankees will have Luis Severino on the mound tonight, and he’s having his best season in years as he returns from injury.

Looking at the rest of the Yankees’ rotation, Severino is fifth among Yankees starters with a 3.38 ERA and 72 innings pitched. It’s not that Severino hasn’t had a good year, it’s just that the Yankees’ other pitchers technically have been a little bit better this year.

Severino faced the Astros last week at Yankee Stadium and took the loss despite posting a quality start — six innings, three earned runs and seven strikeouts.

I’m not really worried about Severino in this spot, as I expect him to keep the Yankees in the game.

The big missing piece for New York tonight could be at the backend of the bullpen, as closer Clay Holmes has pitched each of the last two days and will be unavailable if the Yankees have a late lead.

Aroldis Chapman is still on a minor league rehab assignment, as he works his way back from the injured list.

Michael King, who has also pitched a lot lately, and Wandy Peralta would be next in line for manager Aaron Boone to call on for a save opportunity.


Will Alvarez Play for Astros?

The big news to know for the Astros is that shortstop Jeremy Pena and outfielder Yordan Alvarez collided going for a fly ball in Wednesday afternoon’s game against the Mets.

Alvarez was carted off the field, but was able to walk under his own power from the Astros’ dugout to the clubhouse. While it looked to me like Alvarez just got hit in the face and was able to avoid a more serious injury, his availability for tonight’s contest is up in the air as of now.

Whether Alvarez and Pena are in the lineup tonight is something to keep an eye on in the lead up to game time. Alvarez is the best player on the Astros and has been on a tear with nine home runs in June.

Yankees-Astros Pick

This is an interesting and tough one to pick. The Astros were -120 favorites before Alvarez and Pena collided on Wednesday.

Now, with Alvarez, Pena and Michael Brantley all potentially unavailable for the Astros on Thursday, the Yankees are even bigger favorites on the road (-130).

That line is probably closer to efficient at this point than still favoring the Astros.

I’m advising to tread lightly here, unless we get word that Alvarez is definitely in the lineup. But I do think there’s value on Houston at +110 on the moneyline.

Pick: Astros ML +110

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