Yankees vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Jameson Taillon Shut Down the Upstart O’s? (July 22)
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Jameson Taillon
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
While the Yankees still have the best record in baseball, two losses to the Astros directly after the All-Star break certainly haven’t helped.
Juxtapose that with the Orioles, who are coming off of a stretch in which they won 11 straight games, including 12 of their last 14. The upstart O’s are just 3.5 games out of a Wild Card position after having been as long as 100-1 to make the playoffs earlier this year.
That said, the Orioles are just 4-9 with a -13 run against the Yankees this year. Who will ultimately get the job done and leave with a victory in this interdivisional matchup?
How Does Tyler Wells Matchup Against the Yankees?
The Yankees will face Baltimore right-hander Tyler Wells, who has a 3.38 ERA in 18 starts this year.
Wells has a 5.34 xFIP, 17% K%, 6% BB%, and 36% ground ball percentage. He closed the first half on a solid note as his ERA was 2.87 in his last seven starts and he struck out 30 batters in 37 innings over that timeframe.
This season against the Yankees, Wells has allowed four earned runs over 14 innings pitched, including nine strikeouts and just two walks.
The righty has pitched relatively well this season against right-handed batters — which may bode well against a Yankees lineup that features heavily from that side of the plate.
Expect the former 15th rounder to put up a solid four or five innings against this Yankees lineup and hold them at relative bay. But the real value comes afterward — when Baltimore’s bullpen comes into play.
The O’s bullpen is fourth-best in MLB in ERA and sixth-best in WHIP.
Jameson Taillon Won’t Match Up Well Against Orioles Lefties
Jameson Taillon has a 3.86 ERA for the Yankees this year, but his xFIP is reliably higher at 4.30. Taillon also has a 19% K%, 2% BB%, and 40% ground ball percentage.
Taillon was a solid pitcher for most of the first half of this season, but he’s struggled recently, with a 6.05 ERA over his last eight starts.
Taillon’s big problem over his last eight starts has been giving up home runs, seeing as he’s allowed 10 home runs in that time. He had only allowed four home runs in his first 10 starts of the season.
Taillon has faced the Orioles three times already this season, though he’s failed to post a single quality start against them and has just one win.
The former No. 2 overall pick has allowed extensive power to left-handed hitters this season, giving up a .222 ISO to lefties as opposed to a .165 ISO against right-handed hitters. That bodes well for Adley Rutchsman, Anthony Santander, and Rougned Odor, all left-handed hitters with at least a .180 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Yankees v. Orioles Pick
Taillon’s inabilities against lefties — and his recent downward trajectory — may spell doom for the Yankees for the game’s first five frames.
Overall, the pitching matchup favors the Orioles, and Baltimore at plus-money feels like it should be closer to a pick ’em.
In fact, that’s what our baseball betting algorithms think. Our PRO projections think the Orioles should be closer to +115 underdogs based on some of the factors aforementioned.
So, when the line opened at a roughly +146 consensus for the Orioles to win this game, sharp bettors flocked to that pick.
At a +139 price, this pick provides a roughly 4.9% betting edge.
Pick: Orioles +139 or better.