Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Lefties to Keep Game Under Total (Thursday, May 19)

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Lefties to Keep Game Under Total (Thursday, May 19) article feature image

Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Bruce Zimmerman.

  • The Yankees are heavy favorites (-205 moneyline odds) against the Orioles for Thursday's matinee in Baltimore.
  • However, New York hasn't hit lefties well this month. Will that give Baltimore an edge?
  • D.J. James shares his best bet below.

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds

Yankees Odds-205
Orioles Odds+182
Over/Under8 (-105 / -115)
Time12:35 p.m. ET
Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Yankees have been impressive all season, but they have struggled greatly against left-handed pitching in May. The same can be said about Thursday's opponent, the Baltimore Orioles.

Jordan Montgomery will start for the Yankees and face off against Baltimore's Bruce Zimmerman. Both of these bullpens have been fairly stable in May, too. Baltimore's bullpen has wavered a bit from its hot start, but that is more of a regression to the mean.

Still, the pair of southpaws should be able to keep this game under the total, especially in Camden Yards.

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The Sinker Is Key to Jordan Montgomery's Success

Jordan Montgomery is a stable starter. He owns a 3.56 xERA and a 3.06 ERA with only a 5.5% walk rate. In addition, his Hard Hit Rate of 32.7% ranks in the 79th percentile and his 35.8 % Chase Rate is exceptional. This should help against the O’s, as they chase at the fourth-worst rate in baseball, ahead of the White Sox, Marlins, and Red Sox.

The Orioles, when facing lefties, are only strong at the top of the lineup. Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and Austin Hays are carrying the lineup and each has an xwOBA over .340. However, Mountcastle is on the Injured List, so that eliminates plenty of production from the top of the Baltimore order. Additionally, the entire team only holds a .323 xwOBA against sinkers, which is Montgomery’s predominant pitch.

The Yankees' bullpen had a great start to the year, but they, too, have had some issues this month. These issues have been with Aroldis Chapman and some of the back-end arms, like Jonathan Loáisiga. Lucas Luetge, Clay Holmes and Michael King have all been solid and have each posted a sub-4.00 xFIP on the year. This should enough to get the Yankees to the latter innings.

Bruce Zimmerman has Fared Well Against Yankees

Unlike Montgomery, Bruce Zimmerman will allow some hard contact. He owns a 2.73 ERA and a 4.38 xERA. Teams are hitting the ball at an average of 91.1 MPH off Zimmerman, but this Yankees club has not been sharp against him over the past two seasons.

Aaron Hicks, Anthony Rizzo, D.J. LeMahieu and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa all have a .400+ xwOBA against Zimmerman, but the rest of the roster falls off. This should give Zimmerman some leeway with hitters like Joey Gallo, Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge (shockingly).

The Baltimore bullpen actually has more flexibility. Even if Zimmerman can only manage five or so innings, everyone but four relievers in the Baltimore bullpen holds a sub-4.00 xFIP. In fact, this could even give Baltimore an advantage, but it will also keep the Yankees' lineup at bay in the later innings.

Yankees-Orioles Pick

Taking the under is the right call because of how each team has fared when facing lefties in recent weeks. Zimmerman might not bet the better pitcher in this matchup, but he has had some recent success against certain key hitters in New York's lineup.

The New York bullpen is strong and the back-end relievers should pitch to their talent levels soon. Otherwise, the Yankees still have some options to go after Montgomery’s day ends.

Baltimore has has even more efficient arms lately, which should limit the Yankees' baserunners late in the game. Play the under from 8 (+100), and take it to 7.5 (-110). As of Wednesday afternoon, the Yankees are 20-16 and the Orioles are 24-12-1 on unders.

If bettors are feeling risky, a small Baltimore moneyline bet would not be a terrible idea, either.

Pick: Under 8 (+100) | play to 7.5 (-110)

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