Yankees vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Cortes and the Bronx Bombers in Baltimore (Sunday, July 24)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Nestor Cortes
Yankees vs. Orioles Odds
|Time||1:35 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Yankees have the best record in all of baseball at 65-31, but New York has lost six of its last 10 games after dropping Saturday night’s game in Baltimore. The Yankees also lead baseball with a plus-194 Run Differential, but that was no match for the Orioles Saturday night as they improved their home record to 26-18 this season.
Baltimore picked up the victory even after Yankees ace Gerrit Cole successfully negotiated to pitch the seventh inning with a one-run lead. Unfortunately for Yankees fans, Cole failed to record an out in that inning before giving up the lead and leaving the go-ahead run on base.
Sunday is another day for both teams, but will the Orioles pull out another win against another All-Star Yankees pitcher in Nestor Cortes?
Yankees Righties Should Hammer Kremer
Dean Kremer is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA in eight starts for Baltimore. He’s completed five innings five times, allowed more than three earned runs only once and has allowed a total of three home runs. Despite his success over these eight starts, Kremer has a 5.23 xFIP, 18% K%, 6% BB%, and a 35% Ground Ball Rate. It would seem that Kremer has been exceedingly lucky to have an ERA 2.50 runs below his xFIP.
He also has a decently sized reverse split against right-handed batters as his 12% K% and 45% Fly Ball Rate against right-handed batters represent a steep drop-off from his 25% K% and 34% Fly Ball Rate against left-handed batters. This especially doesn’t bode well for his matchup with the Yankees given all the right-handed power in their lineup as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton each have ISOs above .285 against right-handed pitching this season.
Kremer has a 3.60 ERA at home this season compared to a 1.66 ERA on the road over his small sample size of eight starts. The Yankees lead all of baseball by averaging 5.45 runs per game on the road this season.
Can Orioles Righties Step Up Against Cortes?
Cortes made the All-Star team just like his manager Aaron Boone told him he would when Cortes was wondering if he’d even make the team in spring training. Cortes has been in the Yankees’ rotation all year, making 17 starts, and he almost has as good of an ERA as Kremer at 2.63 entering play Sunday.
He has a better xFIP than Kremer at 4.42 and a 26% K%, 6% BB%, and 32% Ground Ball Rate as well. Cortes had a bit of a hiccup in June as he had a 4.15 ERA for the month, but he’s bounced back nicely with a 3.24 ERA in July. He has a defined split against right-handed batters as he has a 24% K% and .174 ISO allowed to right-handed batters compared to 37% K% and .059 ISO allowed to left-handed batters.
Orioles hitters Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hayes each have ISOs above .185 against left-handed pitchers this season. The O’s are a middle-of-the-pack home offense as they rank 15th in all of baseball by averaging 4.39 runs per game at home entering play Sunday.
Despite the juiced line, I believe the Yankees have the upper hand and will win this game. New York lost last night, but the Yankees still have the best road offense in the league against a pitcher due for regression who hasn’t been as good at home.
The Yankees also have another one of their All-Star starters on the mound, a rested bullpen, and a 10-5 record against Baltimore this year. I found the Yankees moneyline at -180 on BetRivers.
Pick: Yankees ML -180