Updated Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds: New York Favored, Over Takes Money in Wild Card Game
Getty Images. Pictured: New York’s Gerrit Cole and Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi.
- The Yankees are a slight road favorite against the Red Sox in Tuesday's AL Wild Card Game (8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- Each team won Sunday to avoid a Game 163 on Monday, and the Yanks opened as a short favorite.
- New York will send Gerrit Cole to the mound against Boston's Nathan Eovaldi.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | -120 |
| Red Sox Odds | +102 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-118 / -102) |
| Time | Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The regular season is over and the MLB postseason is upon us. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick things off with the American League Wild Card Game on Tuesday night.
The two teams survived a furious Sunday, each winning games to avoid a Game 163 on Monday.
The Red Sox are back in the postseason following two years away. Boston won the 2018 World Series but has struggled the last two seasons.
The Yankees, the most decorated franchise in MLB history, are in the postseason for the fifth-straight year. They lost in the ALDS against the Rays a year ago, and haven't won a World Series since 2009 … which is a long time for them.
The Red Sox won the season series against the Yankees, 10-9, which is why Tuesday's game will take place at Fenway Park. The two teams finished with identical records.
The winner will take on another AL East team, the Tampa Bay Rays, in the division round. Let's take a look at both teams.
New York Yankees
Top Position Players
- Aaron Judge, RF
- Giancarlo Stanton, DH
- DJ LeMahieu, IF
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B
The Yankees started their season poorly, and it's been an uphill climb ever since. The offense was a big reason why, but they were revitalized by midseason deals for Rizzo and outfielder Joey Gallo.
By the end of the season, the Yankees were up to eighth in team wRC+ at 102. The team lags behind in wOBA as its .318 mark is just 11th.
The Yankees are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball, and among playoff teams only the Rays strike out more frequently. They make up for it with the best walk rate in baseball, however. At 10.3%, it's a full half-percent better than any team in baseball.
Projected Starting Pitcher
Gerrit Cole, RHP: 181 1/3 IP, 16-8, 3.23 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 3.15 xERA, 243 Ks, 41 BBs, 5.3 fWAR
In the conversation for best pitcher on the planet, Cole may finally win his Cy Young award this year, but late-season struggles likely put him behind Toronto's Robbie Ray.
Regardless, Cole is among the few pitchers you'd be most confident in having on the mound in a must-win spot.
Those second-half struggles were real, however. Cole had a 4.14 ERA in the second half and allowed nine home runs in 67 1/3 innings. At the start of September, he struck out 15 in seven innings of one-run ball against the Angels, but in his final five starts after that, he had a 6.15 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.
Key Bullpen Pieces
- Aroldis Chapman
- Chad Green
- Jonathan Loaisiga
- Clay Holmes
The Yankees' bullpen is among the best in baseball. They led the majors in xFIP at 3.77, but were unlucky at times as their 3.60 ERA ranked fifth.
Aroldis Chapman still has high-end velocity and can lock down the ninth inning, but allowed a career-high nine home runs, walked more batters than he ever had in his career and finished with a career-worst 3.42 ERA.
Behind Chapman, the Yankees can mix if up with Green, Loaisiga, Holmes and any number of other arms. They expect length out of Cole on Tuesday but have the tools to back him up should he falter.
Boston Red Sox
Top Position Players
- Xander Bogaerts, SS
- Rafael Devers, 3B
- Enrique Hernandez, Util
- J.D. Martinez, DH
Boston's offense is led by the left side of the infield. Bogaerts and Devers were both All-Stars with elite power and the ability to draw walks.
That duo helped pace an offense that finished with the sixth-best offense in baseball by wRC+ at 106. The Red Sox ranked third in wOBA and were the 10th-most difficult team to strike out with a K percentage of 22.6%.
Unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox aren't particularly walk-happy, as they ranked just 20th in the majors with walks in 8.4% of plate appearances.
Projected Starting Pitcher
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: 182 1/3 IP, 11 wins, 9 losses, 3.75 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 3.36 xERA, 195 Ks, 35 BBs, 5.6 fWAR
It was a career year for Eovaldi, who emerged as the ace of the Boston rotation and was its workhorse for the duration of the 2021 season.
Eovaldi made 32 starts and led the league in both FIP and BB/9. The cut down on walks continued a trend we saw in the shortened 2020 season, and he only allowed 15 home runs in earning his first All-Star appearance in a 10-year career.
Key Bullpen Pieces
- Matt Barnes
- Garrett Whitlock
- Adam Ottavino
- Hirokazu Sawamura
- Hansel Robles
Barnes entered the season as Boston's closer and was for a majority of the 2021 campaign.
He was good enough to earn an All-Star nod, but he fell apart in the second half of the season and lost his job down the stretch. Robles has been getting save opportunities down the stretch, with some of Whitlock and Ottavino sprinkled in.
The unit has been an issue for most of the second half and finished with the 13th-best xFIP in baseball to go along with the 13th-best ERA. The Red Sox bullpen helped them get here, but leads aren't quite safe late in games if it's tight.
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