MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox: Is Josh Winckowski Ready for the Moment? (Thursday, July 7)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox: Is Josh Winckowski Ready for the Moment? (Thursday, July 7) article feature image

Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Winckowski #73 of the Boston Red Sox.

  • The New York Yankees head to Fenway Park to face the Boston Red Sox on Thursday in the renewal of one of the greatest rivalries in sports.
  • Red Sox starting pitcher Josh Winckowski makes one of the biggest starts in his young career against the elite class of MLB. Is he ready for this moment?
  • MLB betting analyst Jules Posner previews today's MLB game, featuring updated odds, picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Yankees Odds-165
Red Sox Odds+135
Over/Under8.5 (-115 / -105)
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

This is what it's all about. When people ask me, "Hey, Julesyboy. What's it all about?" I say, "This."

The New York Yankees head to the City That's Made of Beans, Boston, to take on the Red Sox. The Red Sox are not looking to gain ground on the Yankees' 13.5-game lead in the AL East; they are looking to beat the Yankees. Doesn't matter for what.

The Yankees have outclassed all of MLB, and after a surprising loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Yankees stormed back to split a short two-game series.

The Red Sox went bananas in June, going 20-6, but have gone 2-4 to start July while dropping two straight series. Perhaps facing an old rival will help get the Sox back on track.

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have been the talk of MLB and frankly, baseball is better when the Yankees are good. After splitting a two-game series in Pittsburgh, the Yankees look to create even more distance between themselves and the rest of the AL East.

Gerrit Cole is tasked with the Game 1 start, and he has been on a roll over his last four starts. Cole has posted a 1.37 ERA but also has a 3.11 FIP during that span. However, the road has been his weaker split so far in 2022.

He'll also be backed by one of the best bullpens in the game. The Yankees pen has the fourth-best FIP and the lowest ERA during the last two weeks.

The Yankees offense continues to roll in all situations, boasting a 118 wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching over the past couple of weeks.

Boston Red Sox

Josh Winckowski arguably will make the biggest start of his young career on Thursday. He has pitched fairly well since making his MLB debut, but he likely has benefitted from a relatively soft schedule.

Additionally, his home numbers are his weaker split in 2022. Winckowski has posted a 3.68 ERA and 3.79 FIP over 14 and 2/3 home innings.

One concern is that the Red Sox offense has the 28th worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home over the past couple of weeks. However, their sample is relatively small over that timeframe compared to the rest of the league. Furthermore, that number is weighed-down by a surprisingly low walk rate against right-handed pitching during that time period.

The Red Sox bullpen is also an area of concern. Boston ranks among the middle of the pack during the past few weeks, but being an area of concern against an offense like the Yankees is doubly concerning.

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Yankees-Red Sox Pick

Red flags are flying for the Red Sox, but for some reason their +145 moneyline seems very tempting at some books. Additionally, Gerrit Cole has a 6.19 ERA and a 6.05 FIP as a Yankee in Fenway Park.

For whatever reason, the Sox don't mind hitting against Gerrit Cole at home, and Cole seems to mind pitching in Fenway.

Although the Yankees are the best team in baseball, they are currently 6-4 over their last 10 games, which makes them seem more human than usual.

Considering Cole's career numbers at Fenway and the Yankees' lack of familiarity with Josh Winckowski, the Red Sox first five moneyline might be the move today.

Pick: Red Sox F5 ML +140

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