Thursday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Yankees vs. Tigers: Expect Offenses to Flourish

Yankees vs. Tigers Odds

The Detroit Tigers will host the New York Yankees in the final game of the series on Thursday afternoon. Michael Pineda will make his Tigers debut, while Jordan Montgomery will throw for the Yankees.

Pineda did not have encouraging peripherals last season. He ranked in the 5th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and in the 4th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage. Even if he got opponents to chase (96th percentile) and did not issues free passes (96th percentile), he had a litany of other issues.

Montgomery, on the other hand, posted a relatively solid 2021 campaign. He ranked in the 71st percentile in Average Exit Velocity, the 66th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage, and the 87th percentile in Chase Rate.

However, this is a Tigers team that likes to feast on lefties. The Yankees will hit Pineda hard, as well. Betting the over is the correct play here.

Yankees' Montgomery Could Run Into Trouble

The Yankees have not been very impressive in the early going, but they do have some strong pitching. Shockingly, the woes continued for Gerrit Cole when he only managed 1 2/3 innings Tuesday against this same Tigers squad.

Montgomery seems a bit more stable at the moment and features a sinker, changeup, curveball, four-seamer, and a cutter.

The Tigers have had success against similarly-profiled southpaws with the same pitch arsenal, dating back to the beginning of 2021. They have eight healthy players with a .325+ xwOBA on these pitches from left-handers — meaning no matter what is thrown, the Tigers will hit it hard.

Now, the bullpen has been nails for the Yankees, but they have also been fairly lucky. For one a 1.80 ERA is not sustainable, compared to their 3.75 xFIP. Yes, they have plenty of solid options after Montgomery leaves this game, but they are overachieving at the moment.

Aroldis Chapman, Clay Holmes, Michael King, and Lucas Luetge are the only ‘pen arms with sub-4.00 xFIPs. This is something to monitor. Chapman and Jonathan Loáisiga have negative WPA on the season, too.

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Tigers Hoping For Enough From Pineda

Pineda, much like Montgomery, will have some trouble with this Yankees lineup.

Yes, he allowed a ton of hard contact last year, and this Yankee lineup has Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo and Giancarlo Stanton. It does not end there. Pineda uses three pitches: a four-seamer, a slider, and a changeup.

Against righties with these three pitches, the Yankees have six hitters posting a 90 MPH + Exit Velocity and seven hitters with a .325+ xwOBA since the beginning of the 2021 season. This says they will get to Pineda early and he won't resemble the Michael Pineda of 2020.

The Tigers’ bullpen has had the same results as the Yankees. They have posted a 2.85 ERA with a 4.50 xFIP. They only have three arms with a sub-4.00 xFIP.

They had their bullpen struggles last season, and it looks like they will on Thursday, as well. If they are going to the bullpen early,  they will be spotting some runs late in the game to the Yanks.

Yankees-Tigers Pick

Yes, both of these pitchers have had some success in the past, but these two do not match up well with either of these lineups.

The Tigers will crush Montgomery because they feast on similar lefties. The Yankees will do the same with Pineda and will get a couple of additional runs off of the Tigers bullpen. A.J. Hinch and Aaron Boone might have a busy afternoon on Thursday.

Take the over at 8 (-120), and play to 9 (-110). There will be plenty of runs scored.

Pick: Over 8 (-120) | Play to 9 (-110)