Mr. Profitable: Zack Greinke To Houston Gives Astros a Betting Unicorn
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
- Zack Greinke was traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Houston Astros just before Wednesday's trade deadline.
- Since 2011, Greinke is the second-most profitable starting pitcher in baseball according to Bet Labs, profiting bettors $3,562 on a $100 per game basis.
Thirteen minutes after the 2019 MLB Trade Deadline, ESPN MLB Insider Jeff Passan broke the internet (for today at least).
BREAKING: Greinke to Astros, source tells ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 31, 2019
Greinke will join the American League-leading Houston Astros. More importantly, the Astros weren’t giving up any of their current stars (maybe some of their future stars), keeping Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in their rotation.
Let’s first focus on Greinke.
Since he was traded from the Royals to the Brewers, beginning in the 2011 season, bettors have seen Greinke absolutely dominate from a moneyline perspective, going 181-97 (65.1%), profiting bettors $3,562 on a $100 per game basis.
In that span, no pitcher in baseball has been more profitable than Zack Greinke:
Greinke may have had a win percentage over 65% since 2011, but where he did the most damage for bettors was at home.
Greinke’s teams were an astounding 105-37 (73.9%) when he pitched at home, winning by 1.6 runs per game.
In that span, 154 starting pitchers have thrown at least 50 games at home and none had a higher win percentage than Greinke:
- Zack Greinke: 73.9%
- Clayton Kershaw: 72.9%
- Jorge De La Rosa: 71.9%
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 71.7%
Of those four starters, Greinke has profited bettors $2,990 at home, more than $1,000 than either of the three other starters.
Not only has Greinke had success on the full game moneyline, but as of late with the Diamondbacks, the first five innings moneyline has been just as profitable of a strategy.
Over the last three seasons, the D-Backs were 52-23-14 (69.3%) on the first five innings moneyline, including 32-10-5 (76.2%) at home.
In both spots, Greinke is the second-most profitable starter on the first five innings moneyline in that span.
With Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke in the same rotation, the Houston Astros are now the favorites to win the World Series.
Greinke will join two starting pitchers in Houston who simply know how to win games with an Astros offense who is fifth in runs per game in that span, compared to the D-Backs who are 16th.