Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura Odds, Pick, Preview: Russian Has the Edge at UFC 267

Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura Odds, Pick, Preview: Russian Has the Edge at UFC 267 article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Alexander Volkov of Russia.

  • Alexander Volkov is a big favorite to bounce back at UFC 267 against Marcin Tybura.
  • Volkov is coming off a loss to Ciryl Gane, while Tybura has won five straight.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the fight and how bettors can find value on the Russian.

Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura Odds

Volkov Odds
-300
Tybura Odds
+250
Over/Under
2.5 (-110 / -110)
Venue
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
Time
3 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.

The UFC’s No. 5-ranked Heavyweight, Alexander Volkov, will face the No. 8-ranked Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura, Saturday at UFC 267. Tybura is riding a five-fight win streak entering the fight while Volkov is 3-2 in his last five and is coming off a loss to interim champion Cyril Gane.

Below I preview how these fighters match up and which side has betting value for this highly anticipated heavyweight fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Volkov Tybura
Record 33-9 22-6
Avg. Fight Time 15:17 12:10
Height 6’7″ 12’10”
Weight (pounds) 250 lbs. 250 lbs.
Reach (inches) 80″ 78″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 10/24/88 11/9/85
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.84 3.63
SS Accuracy 57% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.88 3.31
SS Defense 54% 55%
Take Down Avg 0.57 1.67
TD Acc 70% 45%
TD Def 67% 82%
Submission Avg 0.2 0.1

Alexander Volkov has completely filled out and turned into one of the most physically imposing heavyweights on the UFC roster, and he makes the most of his height (+4 inches) and reach (+2 inches) advantages in every fight.

“Drago” is an incredibly efficient striker (+1.96 strike differential; and +7% accuracy vs. Tybura) who should appreciate moving back to the larger, 30-foot-octagon, as opposed to the 25-foot cage at the APEX, which was used in three of his past four fights.

Tybura enters this bout on a five-fight winning streak, but he’ll have to close the distance against the larger man in the big cage. His two most recent wins also came in a small cage, but this run hasn’t been particularly impressive; he’s going to need multiple takedowns and/or excessive control time (via the clinch) in order to win this fight.

Volkov has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, and though he was taken down 14 times (a Heavyweight record) by Curtis Blaydes, he showed an excellent getup game and won the final two rounds of the bout.

His takedown defense (54%) undersells his ability to stuff shots, but Volkov is also an adept scrambler for such a big man and he starts throwing hands the moment that he gets back to his feet.

Perhaps Tybura secures one or two takedowns early in this fight, but I doubt that he can keep Volkov on his back for long, and the Pole should get chewed up with straight punches at range.

The must-have app for UFC bettors

The best UFC betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Volkov vs. Tybura Pick

Volkov may not fit into the top three of the Heavyweight division. Still, this is a big step up in competition for Tybura against a solid top-five talent.

I project slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -159), but not enough edge to make a bet. I prefer to use Volkov as a parlay piece (up to -310), and I paired him with Magomed Ankalaev.

The Pick: Use Volkov in Parlays (Up to -310)

How would you rate this article?