Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa Odds
| Murzakanov Odds | -198 |
| Costa Odds | +164 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-260/+195) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC 327 co-headliner features an interesting crossroads fight at light heavyweight between Azamat Murzakanov and Paulo Costa. An undefeated fighter who has been flying under the radar, Murzakanov has a chance to punctuate his winning streak by adding a big scalp to his resume this weekend. Although Costa has primarily made his name at middleweight, "Borrachinha" is not exactly a small man and has fought at 205 pounds before. Costa insists that he still intends to compete at 185 lbs, but a victory over a potential title contender like Murzakanov could boost the Brazilian up the rankings faster as a light heavyweight.
Here's my Murzakanov vs. Costa pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Murzakanov | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-0 | 15-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:51 | 12:46 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/12/1989 | 4/21/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.70 | 6.26 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.86 | 6.20 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.55 | 0.32 |
| TD Acc | 15% | 50% |
| TD Def | 87% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
This matchup pits two powerful strikers who operate out of opposite stances.
Murzakanov, who fights out of a southpaw stance, is an incredibly well-trained and seasoned striker. From lancing jabs to pinpoint crosses, Murzakanov does well at varying his tempo and targets, typically changing up speeds and regularly working the body.
Despite his shorter stature for the division, Murzkanov seems to have a keen sense for range, traditionally playing just outside or inside of kicking margins. And when Murzakanov does blitz in offensively, the Russian displays excellent defensive responsibility with where he slots his head and how he rolls his shoulders and pivots out at angles.
Although we've yet to see Murzakanov in prolonged grappling exchanges, the Master of Sport in Russian hand-to-hand combat shows solid defensive wrestling fundamentals. Murzakanov also trains under the unheralded coach Murat Keshtov, who has helped fighters like Albert Tumenov and Khabib Nurmagomedov get their starts with the UFC. Murzakanov will likely need to utilize all his skills opposite a threat like Costa.
Despite Costa being more known for his striking, the Brazilian bruiser started his career off as more of a grapple-first fighter. Hardcore Costa fans and hipster analysts alike have been wondering aloud if Costa will finally dust off those tools opposite a striking-heavy threat, and those wishes could be answered this Saturday.
That said, if Costa's 6-1 run against UFC-level southpaws has taught us anything, it's that he has no qualms when it comes to striking with southpaws.
A big fan of bodywork and the opportunities for it that open-stance affairs present, Costa will throw body kicks with impunity whenever facing southpaws. And when he can corral his opponent between the inner-black octagon lines and the cage, Costa will gladly unload with hooking combinations.
Costa has been more content with fencing at range and managing the pace a bit more conservatively as his career has gone on, but I believe that a return to his pressure-heavy approach would serve the Brazilian well in this spot.
Murzakanov vs. Costa Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the undefeated fighter, listing Murzakanov -215 and Costa +164 as of this writing. Although I don't disagree with who is favored, I can understand anyone tempted to take a shot on the underdog here.
Costa is the more proven product that has multiple on-paper paths to get the job done. The potential problem, however, is that Costa has traditionally been an inconsistent and volatile fighter since coming up short for the title opposite Israel Adesanya. More importantly, Costa – as alluded to in the previous section – has gotten away from the pressuring approach that both made him so successful and gives him his best chances to win here.
Costa may be one of the few fighters in this division who can strike comfortably with southpaws, but I'd argue that none of them have the style, speed, and power that Murzakanov brings to the table.
Add in the fact that Costa traditionally slows down as the fight wears on and that Murzakanov shows solid defenses to Costa's biggest weapons, and I can't help but ride with the Russian, who has been a pure money train for those who've been backing him.
As someone who cashed on Costa's points handicap prop in his last fight, it's disappointing to see the bookmakers raise the proverbial castle walls on those prices this time out. So, if you're looking to sprinkle some money on the Costa side, then I suggest taking a gander at his decision prop that's currently going off in the neighborhood of plus 5-1 odds.
Other than that, I believe this is a classic "pick a side and ride" spot as far as the money lines go.
I believe that round 2 will be a quiet hot round for Murzakanov to get a finish in, but I have a hard time telling you to run out and bet any of his finish props when this fight goes the distance more often than not.
We can get a slightly better price by taking the double chance method on Murzakanov to win either by points or knockout at -185, which I believe is the most solid angle if you like Murzakanov as I do.
Dan's Picks: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO or Points -185 (DraftKings)
