UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Riddell vs. Rafael Fiziev: Lightweights Clash in Co-Main Event (Saturday, December 4)

UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Riddell vs. Rafael Fiziev: Lightweights Clash in Co-Main Event (Saturday, December 4) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Brad Riddell.

  • Brad Riddell and Rafael Fiziev meet at the UFC APEX for Saturday's co-main event.
  • The two lightweight fighters are both 10-1 and rising stars in the division.
  • Erich Richter breaks down the fights and gives his best picks, below.

Brad Riddell vs. Rafael Fiziev Odds

Riddell Odds+100
Fiziev Odds-120
Over/Under2.5 (-220/ +170)
TimeApprox. 11:30 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.

A pair of 10-1 rising stars in the UFC lightweight division square off in this weekend's co-main event. Brad Riddell is a slight underdog against striker Rafael Fiziev. If it weren't for the scintillating main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo, this would be a very worthy headliner for any fight night.

Both fighters are coming off of close decision victories. Rafael Fiziev is typically a fast starter with loads of power in his kicks and punches. Whereas, Riddell is a bit of a slower starter but comes on strong with volumes of punches and some grappling mixed in. The contrasting styles should make a fascinating matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time15:0010:06
Weight (pounds)155 lbs.155 lbs.
Reach (inches)71"71"
Date of birth9/30/913/5/93
Sig Strikes Per Min4.755.34
SS Accuracy53%52%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.185.76
SS Defense54%50%
Take Down Avg2.000.59
TD Acc42%50%
TD Def62%100%
Submission Avg0.00.0

This weekend will be the third time that Brad Riddell closes as a betting underdog in his UFC career. He has been very profitable as an underdog, winning each of those fights.

Where this fight gets sticky is that Rafael Fiziev has incredible power and is a special athlete. He infamously pulled off a matrix-like move against Marc Diakese. Brad Riddell will be in danger of a knockout early in this fight.

Riddell was knocked down by Drew Dober in the first round last time out. His chin will need to be prepared to take shots against Fiziev who might fish for the knockout early.

If Riddell gets past the first round, he should hold a clear volume advantage. Interestingly, Riddell landed five takedowns against Dober with 2:30 of ground control. Implementing that kind of ground control would easily put him in a position to win this fight.

However, Fiziev's takedown defense is currently 100% in the UFC. We have not seen him get taken down yet, so Riddell will need to break that trend on Saturday.

Riddell vs. Fiziev Pick

Rafael Fiziev's last fight was against Bobby Green in August. Many people (including myself) believed that Green won that fight. This is backed by the fact that Green outstruck Fiziev in every round according to UFCStats.

While there are a lot of unknowns in this fight, we have seen Riddell battle back after the first round to win. Riddell did open as the favorite initially. However, Fiziev was steamed by the public to favorite status that he has not relinquished yet.

From a betting perspective, Riddell opened as the favorite and has more ways to win. Early in the fight, the expectation should be that Fiziev looks faster and more lethal with his strikes.

Consequently, Riddell staying active in the first round and avoiding those strikes is the most important way for him to win.

If Riddell is able to successfully grapple with Fiziev in Round 3, we could be looking at a late finish. In order to bet accordingly, you could opt to take Riddell to win in Round 3 at +2000 and his decision prop at +200 or better.

Instead, PointsBet is offering Riddell to win in Round 3 or decision at +165. I would prefer to bet that prop down to +155 before I take a stab at those other props.

The Pick: Brad Riddell win in Round 3 or by Decision +165 (PointsBet)

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