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UFC 263 Prelims Odds, Pick & Prediction: Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson (Saturday, June 12)

UFC 263 Prelims Odds, Pick & Prediction: Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson (Saturday, June 12) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Chase Hooper

  • UFC up-and-comer Chase Hooper will face off with Steven Peterson on the UFC 263 early prelim card.
  • Peterson enters Saturday's fight as a slight favorite (-115 odds) but his 2-4 record in the UFC leaves much to be desired.
  • Erich Richter explains why he likes the value on Hooper in this scrap.

Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson Odds

Hooper Odds +100
Peterson Odds -120
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -120)
Venue Gila River Arena
Time Approx. 7 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN
Odds as of Thursday and via William Hill.

UFC 263 is a loaded card featuring 14 fights, three of which are five-round fights and there will be two titles on the line. Our best bet on the undercard is on the early prelims, which features five fights on ESPN starting at 6 p.m. ET.

Chase Hooper — a charismatic Ben Askren lookalike who gets a lot of social media attention — returns to the Octagon on Saturday. He will match up with UFC veteran Steven Peterson.

Hooper has a 10-1 record and has had a bit of a rough go in the Octagon. He has struggled in the striking department but showed excellent submission attacks in the past. That’s a place Peterson will want to avoid.

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Tale of the Tape

Hooper Peterson
Record 10-1-1 18-9-0
Avg. Fight Time 11:54 13:35
Height 6’1″ 5’10”
Weight (pounds) 145 lbs. 148 lbs.
Reach (inches) 74″ 70″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 9/13/99 5/29/90
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.43 4.65
SS Accuracy 45% 35%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.95 5.89
SS Defense 38% 56%
Take Down Avg 0.32 2.02
TD Acc 7% 28%
TD Def 66% 75%
Submission Avg 2.2 0.4

This fight should be fascinating inside a loaded crowd in Glendale, Ariz. Hooper is just 21-years-old and has been in the spotlight for most of his career.

Hooper’s striking is the major question coming into this fight. He has been beaten up on the feet in his last two fights. Hooper was probably on his way to a decision loss against Peter Barrett before he landed a late third-round submission via heel hook.

This is a very similar fight for Hooper and the common thought would be that he does not get lucky with a late submission again. However, Hooper was forced to address his striking woes and I am expecting improvement in that department. Per his Instagram, Hooper has been training with one of the best strikers in the UFC, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson.

His opponent, Peterson, is 2-4 in the UFC and is not the best striker himself.  Peterson absorbs more shots than he lands (5.89 strikes absorbed vs. 4.65 landed).

Furthermore, Peterson consistently shoots for takedowns which plays into Hooper’s hands with his excellent ground game. Peterson usually shoots for multiple takedowns, resulting in a lowly 28% takedown rate per UFC Stats.

Hooper vs. Peterson Pick

Hooper loves to fight on the ground, so it is unlikely that Peterson will want to fight there. Hooper is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and Peterson already has issues controlling his opponents on the ground. 

If this fight goes to the ground, I believe Hooper has a significant advantage. The striking is the biggest question in this fight, but I would expect Hooper to at least have different wrinkles to show his opponent.

Thompson was an excellent choice to improve his striking as they have very similar body types. Hooper is 6-foot-1 while Peterson is 5-foot-10. Hooper will also have a four-inch reach advantage.

Peterson has not looked great in his UFC career and Hooper should be improving rapidly at just 21-years-old. Hooper opened as a +155 underdog in this fight and this has since depleted down to a near pick em’.

Money coming in on Hooper is important to recognize as we do not want to take a bad line on this fight. I wouldn’t be in too heavily on any method of victory props either — Hooper has had just three of his 11 fights go to a decision with three KOs and five submissions.

I think the best value for Hooper is on his moneyline which I would bet down to -110. Hooper is currently +100 on William Hill which is the best line on the market.

The Pick: Chase Hooper +100, Bet To -110

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