The final week of Season 10 of the Contender Series is upon us. This season is going out with a bit of a whimper, as the card has a handful of prospects I wouldn't quite deem UFC ready, but that makes for an interesting betting card.
DWCS Season 10 Episode 10 of Contender Series streams tonight on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 10 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, October 13, fight card.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets and see mine in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 10 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 10 Odds & Best Bets
Lightweight: Jason Asher (-205) vs. Greg Foster (+170)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
We kick off Week 10 with about where both fighters are probably a bit below UFC-level, especially in the talent-rich lightweight division. Jason Asher is 5-0 but just one of those wins came against an opponent with more than two pro wins himself, and that fighter — Cameron Graves — reportedly took the fight on roughly one hour's notice.
His opponent is Greg Foster, an 8-1 fighter from the MMA Lab in Arizona. That sentence itself sounds fairly promising, but he's also 34 years old and has fought only two opponents with a winning record. It's slightly strange to see the "A Side" of the fight come from a tiny gym in Louisiana while the underdog comes form a massive team like the Lab, but here we are.
Both fighters also have fairly limited tape available of their recent fights which makes things a bit more difficult. I'll start with Greg "Punch First" Foster, whose nickname may be ironic. He seems to be mainly a wrestler, with three wins via submission and his two knockouts coming on the ground. I couldn't find any evidence of a high-level wrestling background, but his takedowns were solid against the fairly low-level of competition he's faced.
Foster isn't a terrible striker, with solid technical boxing, but nothing really stood out, which is more noteworthy against who he's fought. I'd like to see something stand out when facing 40+ year old opponents with 14-52 records, and Foster needed a close split decision to beat his best opponent, who was 5-3 at the time.
I was initially more excited about Asher when I saw his first-round win over Graves, a credentialed BJJ practioner and former Fury FC champion who has long been the final test for fighters from that region before moving on to bigger promotions. However, the circumstances for Graves make that less impressive, and Asher's win was a TKO due to Graves mostly just giving up.
With that said, he's bigger and a better athlete than Foster. He's reminiscent of a poor-man's Ty Miller from a few seasons ago, with lots of movement and volume on the feet behind a good jab and overall solid boxing. All five of his wins have been knockouts inside of two rounds, and those I could find video of seemed to be more swarming TKOs than true one-shot knockouts. Assuming he can keep this standing, he should look every bit the -205 favorite.
I'd be fine laying the juice on Asher at -205, but frankly I'm not all that interested in risking that much on a relatively low level fight. Instead, I'll take a sprinkle at Asher in Round 2 at +460 odds as a slightly more interesting angle.
Prediction: Asher via TKO
Billy's Bet: Asher Round 2 +460 (FanDuel)
Middleweight: Douglas da Lapa (-172) vs. Davi Cabral (+145)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Two of the night's five(!) Brazilians meet in a middleweight bout, with both Douglas da Lapa and Davi Cabral bringing undefeated records into the contest. This is another fairly binary fight, with da Lapa a long, rangy kickboxer and Cabral a fairly well-known BJJ practitioner with a handful of major wins at black belt.
The 6'3" da Lapa has finished five of his six pro wins with strikes, all coming in the second or third rounds. That's a positive sign for his cardio, but potentially reveals him as another fighter without big one-shot power. Which makes sense given his long, skinny frame: he doesn't carry a ton of muscle, but can flick out strikes almost indefinitely.
He's a good athlete though, with deceptive speed both with his strikes and movement. He tends to get a little overexcited once his striking combinations start flowing, which could be an issue against a grappler, but when it's working serves to overwhelm opponents with volume and mixing striking levels. That works best when he backs them up against the cage, and his ability (or failure) to manage distance and location probably decides this fight.
I was concerned by da Lapa's takedown defense until I saw how quickly and adeptly he worked his way back to the feet, at least along the fence. He's clearly spent a lot of time training escapes along the wall. However, when taken down in the center of the cage he seemed fairly lost, attempting to just push his opponent away with his arms extended rather than attempt meaningful get ups. Against a credentialed BJJ player like Cabral that could be a problem, so where takedowns take place is just as important as if they happen in this fight.
I didn't see much from Cabral in the wrestling department that made me confident he would get them, though. Based on some of his jiu-jitsu clips he has above-average jiu-jitsu wrestling, but we've seen plenty of fighters who fit that description be completely unable to land takedowns in higher level MMA. Carbal's striking isn't totally a lost cause, with a kick-heavy game that works well with his grappling. Often the downside of kicking is that it invites takedowns from your opponent, but that's a feature not a bug given his ability on the ground.
The path for Cabral here is to limit da Lapa's movement via leg kicks, before working him into position for takedowns. He needs to do all that before getting hit, though, which is the hard part. For da Lapa, a classic right hand over the top of a leg kick will be there given his height advantage, and Cabral wore damage extremely poorly in his last fight, a split decision against a 10-8 opponent. Cabral was on the verge of being finished in that fight, but his opponent gassed out and let him off the hook — with the split decision being fairly questionable as well.
I like da Lapa to find the knockout at some point, but the odds (-115) aren't enough better than his moneyline, so give me da Lapa straight up at -172 via FanDuel.
Prediction: da Lapa via TKO
Billy's Bets: da Lapa -172 (FanDuel)
Welterweight: Luis Francischinelli (-245) vs. Will Rentz (+215)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
We have another striker-vs-grappler matchup featuring a very tall, long, fighter, this time in the welterweight division. The tall boi is the 6'6" Luis Francischinelli, who also brings an 80" reach, both absurd figures for the 170lbs division.
The Brazilian is an extremely fun striker, with the usual tall-guy strengths of a long jab and solid straight punches. He even dropped an opponent with a jab in a recent fight. He's more than that, though, often finishing combinations with kicks, leaping in with flying knees and superman punches, and using knee strikes well defensively to punish opponents who step into range.
His problems lie defensively, where he has the bad version of "tall man defense" by exiting the pocket with his chin back and up, trying to lean out of reach of incoming strikes rather than move his feet out of range or defend via slips/rolls/blocks. That nearly cost him in his last fight, where he was dropped with an overhand right. His opponent probably should've used that as a chance to grapple, but got overly excited at the prospect of finishing Francischinelli with his own strikes.
Francischinelli looks fairly lost on the ground, with his best defense coming via referee stand up. That's not an entirely horrible plan as his length makes things body triangles from his back and deep overhooks easier to execute, but it's always risky relying on the official instead of your own ability. Almost all of his grappling is based on limiting damage rather than escaping, and will be a big problem for him long term if he's matched against the division's better wrestlers.
To his credit, Francischinelli's first-level takedown defense is excellent, and he's willing to scramble as long as possible to avoid being grounded, but once his back hits the canvas it might be there for a while.
I'm not sure how exactly to evaluate the grappling level of Will Rentz, an 8-2 27-year-old who trains under longtime UFC veteran Billy Quarantillo. I was impressed by what I saw, but it came mostly against lower-level competition, with his best win coming in 25 seconds against Nick McCarty (7-2-1 at the time) this summer.
Rentz is a good athlete with big power, and typically has looked to grapple once his fights extended past the first minute or two. I don't love how comfortable he seems fighting moving backwards, but at 6'0" he's been taller than many of his past opponents so it makes sense. Breaking that tendency will be extremely important here, as he'll have a big speed and power edge in the pocket against Francischinelli.
While I'm not confident Rentz can get a takedown I view his edge on the ground as larger than Francischinelli's edge on the feet, which makes him an easy click at north of two-to-one odds. FanDuel and BetRivers have the best lines at +215.
Prediction: Rentz via Decision
Billy's Bet: Will Rentz +215 (FanDuel)
Women's Bantamweight: Smilla Sundell (-520) vs. Aline Pereira (+390)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
There's been a handful of UFC/Contender Series signings this year that seemed primarily designed to keep a fighter away from some of the newer promotions that have popped up, specifically the merged PFL/MVP promotion that will start running events in 2027. One example of those is Aline Pereira — younger sister of Alex "Poatan" Pereira. She competed on the inaugural MVP on Netflix event, winning a close split decision over Jade Masson-Wong.
What makes the UFC's motivations here so transparent is that Aline is 36 years old, 3-2 as a pro MMA fighter, and failed to finish any of her wins.
Pereira followed in her brother's footsteps as a kickboxer, making her pro debut in 2017 at 27 years old. She has had some success, with the peak of her kickboxing career coming in an unsuccessful bid for the Glory Kickboxing championship.
The flaw in her transition to MMA, though, is her lack of power. She has very limited grappling ability, and can't put opponents away with strikes, leading to her ceiling being a close striking-based decision. It's hard to win that way, as any round in which she's taken down almost certainly goes to her opponent.
The bigger issue is that her opponent on the Contender Series, Smilla Sundell, is an even better striker. The 21-year-old is a multiple-time ONE FC Muay Thai champion, finishing her two most recent wins before transitioning to MMA. In MMA, she's 2-0 with a pair of knockout wins.
Sundell is at her best in the clinch, where her Muay Thai background is evident. She throws barrages of knees and elbows in close quarters, and controls the "clinch grappling" very well. I'd like to see her get more time working on defensive grappling before joining the UFC roster as her takedown defense left much to be desired — but that's a complete non-factor against Pereira.
I'm not laying north of -500 on this fight, but Sundell to win inside the distance is a very reasonable -110 via DraftKings. A knockout is far more likely than a submission, but with the +110 price I'd rather pay the extra juice for peace of mind.
Prediction: Sundell via TKO
Billy's Bet: Sundell by Finish -110 (DraftKings)
Featherweight: Ilias Bulaid (-142) vs. Erick Visconde (+120)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
This fight was originally booked for Week 8, before being pulled at the last minute. I bet on Visconde that time around as a slight underdog: https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/dana-whites-contender-series-week-8-odds-picks-predictions-for-tuesday-september-29.
Apparently, the fight was scrapped due to Bulaid falling ill, and for some reason came back with him as a slightly heavier favorite. For that reason, I'm sticking with my original pick of Visconde, and happily taking a slightly better price.
Prediction: Visconde via Decision
Billy's Bet: Visoncde +120 (FanDuel)
