Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim Odds
| Prado Odds | -125 |
| Bonfim Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-220/+170) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 122 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 122 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim prediction for UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, October 10, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Francisco Prado gets a rare opportunity to snap a four-fight UFC losing streak this weekend. Usually, fighters are cut before getting a chance to lose five straight, but the 24-year-old American Top Team product has evidently shown the UFC brass enough upside to get one more chance to stick on the roster.
Fortunately for Prado, he gets a late-replacement opponent in Ismael Bonfim, who accepted this fight roughly one week ago. Bonfim has dropped three straight on his own, so this could very well be a "loser leaves town" matchup between these lightweights.
Here's my Prado vs. Bonfim pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Prado | Bonfim | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-5 | 20-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:11 | 8:46 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 163.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/16/2002 | 12/28/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.68 | 5.10 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.31 | 3.96 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.76 | 1.22 |
| TD Acc | 19% | 33% |
| TD Def | 40% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0 |
I intentionally waited until after weigh-ins to write this piece, despite already placing my bet, because I suspected that how both fighters looked on the scales would be a big part of the story.
Francisco Prado came into the UFC as a lightweight, went 1-2 competing at 155lbs (winning two performance bonuses in those three fights) before moving up to welterweight. It made sense that the then-21-year-old had filled out a bit and felt he could no longer make lightweight — but welterweight presented its own set of struggles.
Prado simply doesn't have the frame to compete at 170 lbs, and it was evident when he was forced to grapple. Larger fighters were able to fairly easily control him on the ground, breaking the momentum of the faster striker when he started rolling downhill on the feet. Prado attempted to compensate by proactively grappling and looking for takedowns from his back, but was largely unsuccessful in those areas, with submission attempts generally not rewarded by the judges.
He also lacked the power to put away larger fighters, leaving him in a fairly no-win situation against UFC-caliber welterweights, many of whom cut from nearly 200lbs to make the division.
I'm using past tense to refer to his time as a welterweight since Prado returned successfully to lightweight for this bout. He didn't seem especially drained at the weigh-ins, and made 155 on the dot with no need for the one-pound allowance.
The cruel irony here is that Ismael Bonfim, on the other hand, missed weight by a whopping 7.5 lbs, or half a weight class. Prado would likely be one of the bigger beneficiaries of a "super lightweight" or "junior welterweight" division should one exist, and that's effectively where this fight will take place should it move forward.
Bonfim did take this fight on short notice, as referenced above, but that's a massive miss — and not a wholly surprising one, given that he's twice missed lightweight even with a full training camp.
If anything, an overweight Bonfim makes me more confident in how I expect this fight to play out. The Brazilian starts strong, but rapidly fades if he's unable to get an early finish. In each of his last two fights, Bonfim got an early takedown but was then finished inside of two rounds. Sean Zerillo and I were already both on Prado prior to the weight miss from Bonfim, as we discussed on this week's UFC Betting Preview:
Prado vs. Bonfim Pick, Prediction
Prado has never been finished as a pro, and is very strong defensively in both striking and grappling. He'll likely get taken down early by Bonfim, but be able to take over shortly thereafter. Bonfim's cardio has always been a liability, but a short-notice fight in which he missed weight by half of a weight class will only make the situation worse.
With early reports that Prado still plans on accepting the fight, I'm glad to have locked in my Prado position at -120 odds, which I logged in the Action App on Thursday night. Lines have already shifted slightly within a few minutes of the weight miss, and will likely move considerably given the size of the miss.
I'd still take Prado down to -150, but if you wanted to chase a better price, might I suggest the Round 1/Round 2 prop given out by Dan Tom in our best bets, or waiting for a live angle if Bonfim finds an early takedown. The former is unlikely to move as much as the moneyline, while the latter will offer at least a slight discount on Prado should you be fast enough to time it right.
Billy's Picks: Francisco Prado -125 (DraftKings)
