Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbet Odds
| Camilo Odds | -185 |
| Herbert Odds | +154 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 122 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 122 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbet prediction for UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, October 10, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Herbert, who is the more senior and experienced of the two, has hung around the UFC's lightweight's division for a decent amount of time, accruing a record of 4-5-1 in the octagon. The English veteran was able to get a much-needed win and remind the masses of his action-friendly style earlier this year, but Herbert is tasked with holding the proverbial door against a much younger prospect this time around.
A Brazilian up-and-comer who carries a deceptive win-loss record, Camilo is someone I've highlighted in prospect columns ever since he set foot in my backyard of Xtreme Couture MMA a few years back. Camilo is coming off an impressive knockout win in enemy territory earlier this year and would like to follow things up with a potential win at home.
Here's my Camilo vs. Herbert pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Camilo | Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-3 | 14-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:25 | 10:42 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/02/2001 | 5/13/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.22 | 3.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.05 | 3.34 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.16 | 0.42 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 21% |
| TD Def | 0% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0 |
From a stylistic perspective, this matchup lays out as a classic lightweight action fight between two deceptively well-rounded talents.
Camilo, who originally hails from the legendary Nova Uniao camp in Brazil, is a powerhouse in almost every phase of the fight.
Not only does Camilo carry knockout power on the feet and an Andre Pederneiras-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt on the floor, but the 25-year-old is also a crafty operator inside the clinch, offering everything from slicing elbows and knees (as well as a variety of takedown tools to boot).
Camilo is also good at working the body and legs, which is something that I suspect he'll be showing more of against a long and lanky striker like Herbert.
Carrying an incredibly clean and fundamental offensive striking game, Herbert does a decent job of fighting to his long frame. From a steady dose of leg kicks to jabs that come in conjunction with combinations, Herbert can be a clean and consistent scorer when he wants to be. And when Herbert is feeling in stride, the 38-year-old does a decent job of changing levels and going to the body.
Herbert is also good about mixing in the occasional takedown attempt, but those typically happen in prolonged affairs and tend to lead to stalemates inside the clinch. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Herbert continue to explore alternate avenues in an effort to extend things against someone like Camilo.
Camilo vs. Herbert Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Brazilian fighter, listing Camilo -194 and Herbert +158 as of this writing. Considering the 13-year age gap and 'crossroads fight' feels attached, I'm not surprised to see Camilo installed as the favorite in this spot. Although Camilo is not beyond getting stunned on the feet, pacing issues and fast pushes have been the common culprit in the 25-year-old's early-career submission losses.
Not only is submission grappling the weakest part of Herbert's game, but the English fighter has traditionally struggled with powerful athletes who can competently counterpunch and kick the legs. In addition, Herbert has also fared poorly the handful of times he's been matched with superior grapplers, finding himself stopped by strikes or submitted each time out.
A sweaty decision is always a minority outcome that's on the table for these two, but I believe that this fight ends before the final bell more often than not. And with the Under 2.5 rounds being listed in the neighborhood of -150 or lower at most houses, I genuinely feel like these numbers could look like a hindsight steal for a total I lined closer to -200 or higher.
If you're looking for plus-money action on the Camilo side, then I suggest using the aforementioned Under in an SGP with his money line. And if you just want a stupidly high number to sprinkle on, you could do a lot worse than taking a small stab at Camilo by submission at 8-1 odds when you consider both the biggest on-paper disparity between him and Herbert, as well as the fact that this fight will be taking place in the smaller octagon (a fighting terrain that notoriously lends itself to grappling opportunities).
Dan's Picks: Under 2.5 Rounds -140 (Hard Rock Bet)
