We've got just two weeks left of Contender Series season, with Week 9 giving us a somewhat strange card with a handful of prospects who are a bit young in their career to be already at this stage. We'll touch on why that is as we get to each fight, but the good news is we have some competitive betting odds, which is the type of card I like.
DWCS Season 10 Episode 9 of Contender Series streams tonight on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 9 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, October 6, fight card.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets and see mine in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 9 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 9 Odds & Best Bets
Light Heavyweight: Nell Ariano (-485) vs. Preston LaGrange (+370)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
This first bout of the night features some lopsided odds in the light heavyweight division. While neither fighter is what I would describe as UFC-ready, that's become the norm in the heavier weight classes, where the regional talent pools are nowhere near as deep as they are at welterweight and below.
On top of that, LaGrange wasn't even originally booked to compete on this year's Contender Series, stepping in for Ivan Gnizditskiy, an undefeated Russian prospect who I suspect was the fighter the UFC actually wants to sign. LaGrange typically fights at middleweight, so he is stepping up in weight as well as coming in on short notice for this one.
Ariano at least has a solid background as an accomplished Judoka, who put his Olympic hopes to the side in 2022 to focus on MMA. He didn't debut as a pro until 2024, and has picked up six fairly quick wins against mediocre opponents in Cage Warriors.
Ariano is obviously a solid athlete, but fairly underwhelming on the feet, with a low-volume approach. He plods forward at a somewhat slow pace, occasionally winging big punches or kicks, with the intent more to force a clinch than to hurt his opponents, though he'll occasionally luck into a big shot. Once he's able to get a hold of his opponent, it looks how you would expect: a full repertoire of trips and throws, with a solid, but not spectacular, top game from the ground.
While I don't have a lot of faith in Ariano's ability to implement that game at a high level, he won't have much of a problem with LaGrange. The undersized American is hittable on the feet and doesn't really defend takedowns, instead relying on a solid BJJ game off his back to win fights. The flaw in that was exposed by two-time DWCS loser Brandon Holmes, who knocked out LaGrange with a slam in January.
This line was briefly in a playable range on FanDuel, where they opened Ariano at -260 as I tipped on the Action Network Discord. I'm not willing to lay close to -500 on Ariano at this point, though, so if I was forced to make a bet right now, I guess it would be LaGrange, who could theoretically pick up a win off his back — but I'd much rather pass at the current price.
Prediction: Ariano via TKO
Billy's Bet: Pass
Bantamweight: Mateus Soares (-395) vs. Ryuho Miyaguchi (+310)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
The best explanation I have as to why Miyaguchi is getting this opportunity is that he accepted a fight against an overweight opponent on this season's Road to UFC tournament. That's the only thing that makes sense, after Miyaguchi was submitted in the second round by a fighter who lost in the semi-finals, and hasn't picked up any other regional wins since.
That, or the UFC likes the exciting style of Miyaguchi, who comes from a Karate background. He bounces around on the outside with his hands down, looking to set up dynamic strikes from range. The problem is he lacks the speed and reflexes to avoid damage while doing so — and is also easily bested when opponents force their way into the pocket. Miyaguchi's 7-1 record is somewhat misleading as well, since only two wins came against opponents over .500, and they were 8-6 and 14-13, respectively.
The A side of this fight is the Brazilian Soares, who is already 11-2 at just 22 years old. He trains out of Rio de Janeiro under UFC legend Pedro Rizzo and Laerte Barcelos, head coach and father of UFC fighter Raoni Barcelos. The Brazilian is hyper-aggressive, throwing everything with knockout intention, including plenty of punishing leg kicks. Those will be an effective tool against the wide Karate stance of Miyaguchi.
There's not a ton of recent tape of Soares grappling, but he has a heel hook victory earlier in his career, and trains at a gym in Brazil with plenty of grapplers, so he almost certainly has the edge there. He also holds a black belt in Taekwondo, so he will be at least somewhat familiar with the Karate striking from Miyaguchi.
Miyaguchi could, of course, land something from the outside and catch Soares, which is the only thing keeping me from laying the juice on his moneyline. Instead, I'm taking the under 1.5 rounds at -154 via DraftKings. Soares almost certainly gets it done before then, but this way we're covered in case Miyaguchi lands something big, all at a much better price.
Books have been slow to post DWCS lines this week, so be sure to line shop on this prop, as you might be able to find a slightly better line by the time you're reading this.
Prediction: Soares by KO
Billy's Bets: Under 1.5 Rounds -154 (DraftKings)
Flyweight: Alexander Chavez (-110) vs. Roque Conceicao (-110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
My favorite fight of the night unsurprisingly comes in the flyweight division, where Roque Conceicao gets a second crack at the Contender Series after losing to Imanol Rodriguez in 2025. That loss has obviously aged well, with Rodriguez going 2-0 in the UFC with two performance of the night bonuses in the meantime.
Conceicao has gone 1-0 since then, picking up a first-round knockout over a 14-6 opponent in the Shooto promotion. Neither that fight nor the loss to Rodriguez revealed much about him that I didn't already know coming in, though it's worth noting that he got fairly unlucky in the Rodriguez fight. He was defending himself well — and landing on Rodriguez — but slipped on a kick, which led to the finishing sequence.
Chavez is an interesting prospect. He comes in with a 9-0 record, six of those wins via knockout, but each of those fights under the then "Inka FC" banner. Inka FC is a promotion run by Ivan Iberico — who also happens to be Chavez's head coach.
Interestingly enough, Inka FC has posted videos of nearly all of Chavez's wins, except his decision win at Inka FC 49, which is fishy given the circumstances. The finish of his last fight was also a bit fishy, with Chavez's opponent seemingly falling for no reason a few seconds after the last blow had landed:
None of this means Chavez isn't good, and he seems to be a solid, patient striker. I'm very suspicious that all of his fights have been on the level, though, with at worst his opponents carefully picked by his coach/promoter in order to make him look good. He's not getting that treatment by the UFC, and Conceicao is a solid prospect, so I'm going with the Brazilian at -108 odds via FanDuel. The line has been shifting his way, but I'd play him down to -140.
Prediction: Conceicao via knockout
Billy's Bet: Conceicao -108 (FanDuel)
Welterweight: Sal Everett (-135) vs. Ozzy Martin (+114)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
This is another fight between two fighters who aren't quite ready for the UFC, with both men holding 4-0 records without wins over notable competition. I was confused about this fight even happening, until I remembered the story of a UFC office security guard/personal assistant to Dana White attempting to break into the UFC as an athlete.
That would be Everett, who has to earn his way in like everyone else despite the obvious conflict of interest. With that said, the UFC is attempting to at least give him a fair shot by pairing him with a similarly experienced opponent.
I wasn't especially impressed by Everett, but he has some positive attributes. Chief among them is "tall" as a 6'3" welterweight. He uses his length well at range and also in the clinch, switching to knees and elbows while fighting in tight instead of trying to awkwardly punch opponents. He also has solid submission grappling, but the unfortunate habit of allowing takedowns and attempting to win fights from his back, similarly to LaGrange.
Unlike LaGrange, he at least has the self-preservation to let go of a triangle when his opponent picks him up for a slam, which saved him in one of his previous wins. Still, he's never beaten an opponent with a winning record, making this a big step up for a fighter who should probably spend another year on the regional circuit.
Of course, the same could be said of Martin, whose best win was over an opponent who was 2-1 at the time. However, he's also fought in boxing and kickboxing against tougher fighters, and doesn't seem to have been as "protected" record-wise as Everett.
I was impressed by Martin's striking, with his defense standing out the most. He fights out of a high guard, protects himself well, and utilizes straight punches instead of winging hooks and overhands. His grappling is something of a mystery, and I'm reasonably confident he won't press the issue, with this fight possibly coming down to his ability to defend takedowns from Everett.
I'm not overly confident in his ability, but I also haven't seen much offensive wrestling from Everett, so at plus-money I'm more than willing to bet on Martin to keep it standing and win on the feet. He likely doesn't get a contract without a highlight-reel finish, but he should be able to win the fight.
The best odds are +118 at FanDuel.
Prediction: Martin via Decision
Billy's Bet: Martin +118 (FanDuel)
Bantamweight: Summer Onley (-162) vs. Alivia Bierley (+136)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
We get our 3rd women's fight of the season this week as Summer Onley takes on Ashley Bierley to close the show on Week 9. The Women's bantamweight division is sorely lacking in talent, with just 24 women on the roster, and a lack of compelling contenders at the top.
After reviewing the tape on both women involved in this matchup, I'm not sure we're doing much to address the "future contenders" issue, but at least one of them could help fill out the division a bit.
The underdog Bierley reminds me of fighters like Hannah Goldy and Hailey Cowan — good athletes who aren't true "fighters" but can find success in thinner divisions thanks to their athletic tools. I'm not sure if she competed in other sports at a high level like those women, but she's fairly green in martial arts. She won a BJJ no-gi world title in 2025 at blue belt — which suggests she'd been training between 1 and 3 years heading into that tournament.
Her best moments come when she sucks her opponents into a brawl, or is able to take them down with big slams. She's often losing minutes but winning big moments or two, which either lead to a stoppage or are enough to swing rounds her way. She's fought just one opponent who was above .500, and that woman was only 2-0.
Onley has an amateur MMA career that dates back to 2019, giving her a couple of years' head start on Bierley, and is 6-0 with five knockouts as a pro. She's a clean striking boxer with solid power who also mixes in the occasional leg kick, and uses her length well to stay out of grappling exchanges. I couldn't find much tape of Onley on the mat, but that's at least somewhat a testament to her ability to keep fights standing.
In the end, I'm confident Onley is the better striker here, with the grappling — should it get there — a complete toss-up. That's enough for me at the current odds to lay the juice on the favorite, with -160 available at BetMGM and Caesars.
Prediction: Onley via Decision
Billy's Bet: Onley -160 (BetMGM/Caesars)
