The Octagon returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 122, and the main card showcases high-stakes divisional battles across multiple weight classes.
UFC Vegas 122 Picks & Predictions This Weekend
Anchoring the event is a middleweight clash between submission specialist Brendan Allen and strike-heavy Christian Leroy Duncan. Traders are torn between the two fighters, so we can expect a tight bout that comes down to the finest details.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Polymarket traders seem to believe this is an exceptionally close fight, as Brendan Allen leads the board with just a 54% implied probability.
Ranked fourth in the middleweight division, Allen brings a dangerous combination of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and pressure grappling, boasting 15 UFC victories with a primary focus on taking opponents to the mat and securing back control.
On the other side, Christian Leroy Duncan rides a winning streak fueled by dynamic switch-stance striking and explosive knockout power.
Duncan’s path to victory lies in keeping the distance, utilizing his long jab and creative kickboxing to pick Allen apart from range. However, Allen’s chain-wrestling and clinch work threaten to neutralize Duncan's weapons. If Allen closes the distance early, Duncan’s takedown defense will be tested immediately.
The combination of profiles makes a TKO/KO victory a less likely outcome. In this case, I think the best option is backing Allen on the Moneyline, and Fight won by decision regarding the method of victory.
Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo
This lightweight matchup presents a brutal contrast between youth and experience. Brazil’s Matheus Camilo, 25, enters on a momentum wave following a first-round knockout over Nazim Sadykhov, bringing explosive power and relentless forward pressure. Veteran Jai Herbert, 38, relies on his lengthy 77-inch reach, polished kickboxing, and distance management to keep the youngster at bay.
Camilo holds the edge on prediction markets with 64% implied odds, as traders are convinced that he will crush Herbert.
Camilo will look to bridge the massive eight-inch reach disadvantage with heavy hooks and shooting for opportunistic takedowns. At the same time, Herbert’s success hinges on using leg kicks, and lateral movement to circle away from Camilo’s charges. If Camilo forces a brawl in the pocket, Herbert will be exposed.
Given his age and the hype generated by his recent victory, Camilo opens as the favorite, and as much as I want to be a contrarian, it is difficult to disagree. Backing Camilo’s win contract or targeting Under 2.5 Rounds are the most attractive positions on this matchup.
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Otari Tanzilovi vs. Malcolm Wellmaker
In the bantamweight division, Malcolm Wellmaker takes on Georgian prospect Otari Tanzilov. Wellmaker enters with sharp boxing fundamentals and fluid counter-punching that allow him to cause damage from the center of the Octagon. Meanwhile, Tanzilovi offers a well-rounded mix of aggressive sambo-style wrestling and powerful hooks.
While both are intriguing fighters, Polymarket traders show a clear preference for Wellmaker, who leads the moneyline with 66% implied odds.
The fight narrative revolves around range control versus positional control. Tanzilovi needs to close distance aggressively, absorb Wellmaker’s counters, and force the fight against the fence to execute takedowns. Wellmaker, meanwhile, will aim to keep the fight in open space, picking Tanzilovi apart with jabs and body kicks while defending initial takedown attempts.
My favorite trading angle is pretty straightforward: Wellmaker on the moneyline. Also consider adding Fight by Decision, given Tanzilovi’s durability and wrestling defense capabilities. For total round props, targeting Over 2.5 Rounds serves as a reliable core position as both fighters possess the technical defense to survive early damage.
Ketlen Souza – Loopy Godínez
In the women's strawweight division, Mexico’s Lupita "Loopy" Godínez meets former Invicta FC champion Ketlen Souza.
Godínez enters as a clear prediction market’s favorite with 68% implied odds, boasting an elite takedown average of nearly three landed per 15 minutes. On the other hand, Souza is coming off a string of impressive performances including an early stoppage win over Ariane Carnelossi.
The question is whether Souza can keep this contest in open space or if Godínez can enforce a grind. Souza's defensive takedown rate of 54% remains her primary vulnerability. If Godínez closes distance early, she can neutralize Souza's explosive kickboxing attacks.
The best positions here are Godinez on the Moneyline and Fight won by Decision, as she has a considerable history of 15-minute decision victories.
